The good, the bad and the ugly from Patriots/Packers
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| The Pats were this close to escaping Lambeau with a win. Photo via Chris Humphries/USA Today Sports |
The Good
Red zone defense
Not to state the obvious, but the Patriots phenomenal red zone defense kept them in this game. A normally deadly Packers offense managed four trips to the red zone, but were held to four field goals. As a result, Green Bay was held to 26 points despite a tremendous showing from Rodgers, 6 points below their season scoring average of 32 a game. In general, these Pats can normally expect to win when they hold an opponent to 26, especially when that opponent has a quarterback of Rodgers' caliber.
Run defense from the nickel
A quick glance at the stat sheet wouldn't suggest run defense as a strength in this game. Lead back Eddie Lacy rushed 21 times for 98 yards, good for a 4.7 yards per carry average. Overall, Green Bay averaged 4.5 yards per carry on their 29 attempts, with only two negative plays.
However, a closer look reveals that much of that damage was done very early in the contest, with the Pats recovering to play the run pretty well the rest of the way. The Packers fed Lacy the ball on their first three plays from scrimmage, with a 12 yard pass followed by runs of 13 and 24 yards. On both plays, both Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins compounded their poor angles with an inability to get off blocks, allowing the powerful Lacy to get a full head of steam going into the secondary.
After those first two runs, the Pats did an excellent job of holding Lacy in check. Lacy only managed 61 yards on his final 19 carries, an average of only 3.21 yards a play. That stretch included only two runs of over 5 yards and a whopping 13 runs of 3 yards or fewer.
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| Hightower had another strong game against the run. AP Photo/Mike Roemer |
The Patriots ability to stop the run for their nickel came under serious question after a rough outing against the Jets back in Week 7. They had played relatively well against the run in recent weeks, but only faced one top-flight back (Chicago's Matt Forte) in that span. Shutting down a back with Lacy's tackle-breaking power despite playing the majority of the game in the nickel can only be a positive for the Patriots defense. They can thank the improved play of Hightower and Collins for this, along with solid snaps from addition Alan Branch in the middle next to Vince Wilfork.
The Bad
Big Plays/Depth at corner
Taking away the big play had been a strength for this Patriots defense all season. It took nine weeks for them to give up a passing play of over 40 yards, and have spent the last month shutting down prolific passing teams.
However, Rodgers beat them over the top a handful of times in this one, and one could argue those few big plays were the difference in the game. In fact, Green Bay's only two touchdowns were the result of big plays: a beautiful 32 yard strike to tight end Richard Rodgers (set up by a 45 yard bomb to rookie receiver Davante Adams), and a 45 yard catch and run touchdown to Jordy Nelson right before halftime, a stunning breakdown that changed the complexion of the game.
While Green Bay certainly deserves credit for making those big plays, poor execution by Patriots defenders played a role. Logan Ryan was simply beaten by Adams, who consistently won that one-on-one battle until the Patriots were forced to pull the second year corner. The same could be said for Patrick Chung, who allowed the unheralded rookie tight end to get enough of a step on him for Rodgers to make the connection. Finally, an uncharacteristic bad angle from McCourty turned a routine slant to Nelson into a big gainer, when it should have been a 15 yard gain at most.
Such is reality against a quarterback like Rodgers: the defense has to play near-perfect football, and weaknesses will be found and exploited. Overall, it's hard to complain about the Patriots defensive effort: not only did they hold the Pack to those four field goals in four red zone trips, but they also held them to merely 3 points in the second half. The defense certainly gave an out-of-rhthym offense plenty of chances to retake the lead.
With that said, the Pats need to get better play out of their depth corners. Darrelle Revis has been outstanding, Brandon Browner remains a unique chess piece to match up against bigger receivers and athletic tight ends, and Kyle Arrington is having an excellent season matching up with shifty, slot receivers. However, Alfonzo Dennard has struggled all season after missing much of the offseason due to shoulder surgery, and Ryan followed up a strong performance against Detroit with a stinker in Lambeau.
Corner depth was supposed to be a strength for this New England defense, and their top three at the position still rivals any roster in the league. However, with those top corners doing an excellent job against team's top options (minus a few plays, the dynamic duo of Nelson and Randall Cobb were largely held in check), opposing quarterbacks are getting forced to check down to their third, fourth and fifth options. The Pats need either Ryan, Dennard or even Malcolm Butler to step up and consistently win those matchups, or else opponents will have a matchup to target even with Revis and Browner on their game.
Pass Protection
Let's start by making this clear: while the Pats weren't great in protection on Sunday, they were still miles ahead of where they were back in September, when their inability to give Brady merely adequate protection threatened to submarine the season.
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| Protection issues often forced Brady off the field. AP Photo/Christian Peterson |
With that said, pass protection was inconsistent at best and shaky at worst against the Pack. Overall, Tom Brady was hit, hurried or sacked on 14 of his 38 dropbacks, nearly 37% of the time. There were stretches when the protection was fine, and Brady did an excellent job of moving around in the pocket to buy extra time, but pass protection breakdowns caused several drives to stall prematurely. Given that the Pats only lost by five points, it's hard to not wonder if better play from the line could have swung the game in New England's favor.
Two players stood out in what was an off game for a line that had played well against the dangerous fronts of Detroit and Denver in recent weeks. Dan Connolly had a rough day at the office, allowing 1 sack, 2 hits and 2 hurries by himself. No other lineman was responsible for more than 2 pressures, as Connolly struggled to handle Green Bay's Mike Daniels all game.
Furthermore, it was hard to ignore the struggles of Marcus Cannon, who was unable to fill the injured Cameron Fleming's role as an extra lineman/blocking tight end. Cannon only played 8 snaps, but that was enough time for him to pick up a false start penalty and allow an ugly blindside pressure. That jumbo package with an extra lineman coming in as a tight end has been a staple for the Pats this year when they've looked to establish their power rushing game, but Cannon was unable to handle what should have been an easy role for him.
Finally, left tackle Nate Solder wasn't bad overall, but he was largely responsible for the third down sack late in the game that resulted in a missed Stephen Gostkowski field goal. The Pats would never get the ball back. Solder has been a solid pro for the Pats, but giving up pressure at inopportune times isn't exactly new for him. The Pats can only hope that this doesn't repeat itself in a game with higher stakes on the line.
The ugly
Coaching
It's rare that one can say the Pats were clearly out-coached by their opposition, but that was the case on Sunday. This starts with the play-calling of Josh McDaniels, who once again abandoned the running game early, despite the Pats seeing some success when they did commit to the ground.
The Pats had only 18 rushing attempts as a team, despite averaging 4.7 yards per carry. LeGarrette Blount led the way, with 58 yards on his 10 carries. No one else had more than 3 carries, with Jonas Gray getting only one attempt (a four yard run), two full weeks removed from his breakout game in Indianapolis.
Bill Belichick has already been questioned about the playcalling since the game, and pointed out that certain circumstances limited their opportunities. The Pats 57 offensive snaps were there second lowest total of the season, trailing only the infamous Monday Night debacle in Kansas City.
This limited their opportunities to run somewhat, but there's no excusing the lack of commitment to offensive balance. Green Bay's run defense isn't as soft as their much-discussed 30th league-wide ranking, but it is a weakness that the Pats failed to attack. Establishing the run more also would have helped to lessen the pressure on the aforementioned offensive line, which could have in-turn helped them to protect Brady better.
Another gripe with the coaching is the lack of pressure dialed up on Aaron Rodgers. While Brady often found himself side-stepping early pressure, Rodgers had all day to throw. He was only hit, hurried or sacked eight times in his 46 dropbacks (just 17%), thanks partially to a scheme that Rodgers described after the game as a "controlled rush".
I wrote myself prior to the game that Rodgers' ability to scramble should be a consideration in whatever pressure-schemes Matt Patricia dialed up, but it's hard not to wonder if the Pats went too conservative in hindsight. While blitzing Rodgers is admittedly a dangerous game, giving him all day to scan the defense comfortably from the pocket is football suicide. He's simply too smart and too accurate to give him that kind of time.
Furthermore, the gameplan didn't do too much to stop Rodgers from doing damage with his feet. It was often Rob Ninkovich sinking back from his initial rush as a "spy" on Rodgers, but Ninkovich didn't have the footspeed to stop Rodgers when he saw open field. Rodgers didn't run often, but he was effective when he needed to be. There was no better example of this than his 17 yard scramble in the first half, turning a second and 18 into a very manageable third and 1 which the Packers converted to extend what would be a field goal producing drive.
One decision I won't criticize is the decision to send Gostkowski out there to kick a 47 yard field goal with 2:40 left in the game. The alternative was to attempt to convert a fourth-and-18, a play with astronomically low odds. Gostkowski is in the midst of another excellent season, is accustomed to kicking in cold, outdoor conditions, and has made plenty of kicks from that distance in his career. If he makes the kick (a more likely scenario than converting fourth down from that distance), the Pats pull within 26-24, and are in position to win the game with a field goal if the defense can get them the ball back. Of course, Rodgers managed to get the first down he needed, enabling the Pack to run out the clock and make that a moot point, but it was a worthwhile gamble considering the Pats defense had held Green Bay to just a field goal in the second half.
