Week 13 scouting report: Green Bay Packers
Green Bay offense
Needless to say, the offense has been largely responsible for Green Bay's 8-3 record. They average 32.2 points per game, second in the league behind only New England's 32.5. They also come in on fire, having scored 50 in back-to-back weeks before facing a tougher than expected fight from Minnesota last Sunday.
Most of the credit for this is deservingly given to quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who might be Brady's toughest competition for the regular season's MVP award. Rodgers has been stellar once again this year, completing 66.7% of his passes for 2957 yards, 30 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. Most impressively, Rodgers has maintained that level of efficiency despite throwing downfield early and often; his 8.6 yards per attempt is first in the league and over a full yard more than Brady.
Rodgers has been magnificant, and once again has gotten good play from his receiving corps. Jordy Nelson has been his usual dominant self, racking up 68 catches for 1066 yards (15.7 yards per catch) and 9 touchdowns, and Randall Cobb (58 catches, 837 yards, 10 touchdowns) has been nearly as good in the #2 role. They've been supplemented by rookie second round pick Davante Adams, who has overtaken Jarrett Boykin for the third receiver role. Adams has flashed at times for the Pack this year, but has seen his targets go down recently, with only eight looks in the past three games.
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| Catches like this have made Nelson a go-to guy for Rodgers |
If Revis does indeed spend most of his time shadowing Nelson, that would leave Kyle Arrington as the logical choice to man up on Cobb. At 5'10", 191 pounds, Cobb is exactly the kind of small, shifty receiver that typically gives Browner trouble, and the type of matchup Arrington normally takes. Most teams would hesitate to put their third or fourth corner on a player of Cobb's caliber, but the Pats showed their faith in Arrington two weeks ago when they entrusted him with the assignment of Colts speedster TY Hilton.
This would likely leave Browner to tussle with the rookie Adams on the outside. It's a scenario that normally would see the big corner spend some time shadowing the tight end, but the Packers duo of Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers simply hasn't posed much of a threat to opposing defenses this year.
A final threat to worry about in the passing game is running back Eddie Lacy. Lacy is best-known for his tackle-breaking power as an inside runner, but the bruising back has proven to be a reliable safety valve for Rodgers when things break down. Lacy ranks just behind the top three receivers for targets, and has caught 29 balls for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns himself.
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| The powerful Lacy is a load to bring down |
Green Bay's personnel will force the Pats to once again play a lot of nickel, which will only make the job of stopping the hard-charging Lacy (and his explosive backup, James Starks) more difficult. Continued strong play from linebackers Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins will help in this regard, as will solid push from the defensive linemen. Big Alan Branch has been helpful in this department since his midseason arrival, and another strong game from him and Vince Wilfork will certainly help gum up the middle of the field for Lacy.
As with almost any quarterback, one of the keys to defending Rodgers is pressure. Rodgers completes an absurd 72.7% of his passes when not pressured; under pressure that number drops to 46.2%. His yards per attempt also drops dramatically, from 9.2 to 6.9. However, blitz him at your own risk; Rodgers completes 62.4% of his passes when blitzed, and has a blistering 9.8 yards per attempt and 12 touchdowns against one interception.
That puts the Pats defense in a bit of a conundrum. The Pats have managed to generate pressure even with top pass rusher Chandler Jones sidelined with a hip injury, but much of that has come courtesy of the blitzing prowess of linebackers Hightower and Collins. The Pats have also done plenty scheme-wise to aid their pass rushers, be it in the form of stunts, disguises or delayed blitzes. It's actually been rare that they've sent the house, but blitzes up the gut have been a big part of their recent defensive success.
Attacking the interior of opponents offensive lines has brought New England success, but doing so will mean challenging the strength of the Packers offensive line. The interior trio of center Corey Linsley and guards Josh Sitton and TJ Lang has been excellent all season for the Pack. Lang is responsible for the only 2 sacks surrendered by that group all year, and all three have allowed a low number of quarterback disruptions. Tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari have also been decent in pass protection, although left tackle Bakhtiari has had his struggles in the running game.
I'd expect the Pats to stick with what's worked for them here, just as they did against another "blitz at your own risk" quarterback a few weeks back with Peyton Manning. In this case, the key is creating confusion as far as where the pressure is coming from. Not only will this increase the odds of someone breaking free to get a shot at Rodgers, but forcing him to take that extra split-second to diagnose the defense could be enough to throw off the timing of the Packers precise, timing-based attack. The Pats will have to be careful to make sure whatever pressure they do draw up for Rodgers doesn't allow him to escape the pocket with his legs, when he has the speed to hurt you in the open field and the ability to throw accurate darts on the run.
Green Bay defense
The Packers defense has had their moments this year, but they'd be hard pressed to be pleased with the overall results. Despite ranking first in the league at forcing turnovers, the Packers defense has been decidedly middle-of-the-pack. They currently rank 15th in the league, allowing opponents to score 22.4 points per game on them.
Bill Belichick always looks to exploit the opponents biggest weakness, and this week that could be the Packers rush defense. The Packers rank near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories, including opponents attempts, yards and yards per carry allowed (4.5). They've seen some improvement since moving Clay Matthews to middle linebacker, but not enough to expect the Pats to shy away from attacking them on the ground.
Last week, the Pats "big back" duties went to newly re-signed LeGarrette Blount, as Jonas Gray was in the doghouse after oversleeping and missing Friday's practice. This week, I wouldn't be surprised to see both get their share of work, with the Pats likely using a "hot hand" approach to splitting their carries. They'll have to be aware of Mike Daniels, who has developed into an excellent all-around lineman for the Packers 3-4 front, but none of the Pack's other regulars in the D-line rotation have excelled against the run.
If he's active, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cameron Fleming have a role this week as an extra blocking "tight end" on running plays. The Pats have used three tight end sets with Fleming to great success in previous games when the running game was a big emphasis (including their beatdown of the Colts two weeks ago), and the extra push the big tackle provides is a big help towards establishing the running game.
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| Shields is the leader of an opportunistic secondary |
The Packers may lack a star in their defensive backfield, but they do have solid depth. Nickel corners Davon House and Casey Hayward have both been solid this year, with Hayward particularly excelling in coverage. They also go three deep at safety, where Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix has flashed his first round talent in an up-and-down rookie year while rotating with the solid if unspectacular duo of Micah Hyde and Morgan Burnett. None of those three players have the ability to stick with human wrecking ball Rob Gronkowski in coverage, and the inexperience of rookie Clinton-Dix could make him a target to exploit on play action.
Much like the Patriots of recent years, these Packers have surrendered yardage but made enough big plays to complement their high-powered offense. In the Packers case, that has come from that aforementioned 15 interceptions, helping them lead the league with 23 forced turnovers. The Patriots should be able to move the ball and score frequently on this Packers defense, but will have to avoid the kind of game-changing plays that could swing momentum back in the Packers favor.
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| The Pats must find an answer to Peppers as a pass rusher |
Special teams
The Pats have consistently outplayed their opponents on special teams during their seven game win streak, and they certainly have the ability to do so again against an up-and-down Green Bay unit.
First, the strengths on Green Bay's unit lie with kicker Mason Crosby and punt returner Randall Cobb. Crosby has been excellent once again, making 16 of his 18 field goals, including 3-4 from beyond 50 yards. Cobb is an electric open field runner, and while he hasn't broken any huge plays, his 9.5 yards a punt return indicates his ability to consistently give his team solid field position.
The rest of the Packers special teams units have been underwhelming. Neither DuJuan Harris nor Micah Hyde has lit it up returning kickoffs, as they've combined to average just 21.7 yards a return. Meanwhile, they've allowed opponents to average 25.6 yards a return, a number that should be music to Danny Amendola's ears.
The Packers punt coverage has actually been pretty good, allowing merely 5.8 yards per return, but that's come in spite of the struggles of punter Tim Masthay. Masthay actually has a solid average (45.1 yards), but he's already had two punts blocked, has only dropped 14 of his 36 punts inside the 20, and has a mediocre net of only 39.1 yards per punt. A poor punt or two could give Julian Edelman a chance to break free for a big play, as he often has this season.
Other factors to watch
Turnovers
Turnovers are always a huge key, and their importance could be even greater this week given the two team's corresponding strengths. Both the Packers and Patriots have been great at protecting the football, and both rank among league leaders in takeaways. Specifically, the Packers have the least turnovers (8) and second most takeaways (23) in the league, while the Pats aren't far behind with only 9 turnovers and 20 takeaways themselves.
Needless to say, both teams are accustomed to winning the turnover battle, and whoever does so on Sunday will have a major advantage. Given the strengths of both offenses, an extra possession here or there could be the difference in the game.
Starting fast
The Packers are clearly built to play with a lead. Their passing game has allowed them to rush off to big leads, especially at home, where they've lead by a combined 128-9 in the first half of their last four games. This plays to the strengths of both their offense, which is equally adept at scoring points in a hurry and grinding out tough yards on the ground, and their defense, which is much better at rushing the passer and forcing mistakes than playing a multi-dimensional team that can run the ball.
If the Patriots can get the lead early, it will accomplish several key things. Not only will it force the Packers to play from behind, something they aren't accustomed to doing, but it will also help to take the Lambeau crowd out of the game. Establishing that early momentum and getting the first punch in could be key to setting the tone for the rest of the game.
Response to the moment
Both team's will tell the press that this week is "just another game" on the schedule, but I'd expect a playoff-type atmosphere on Sunday. In addition to seeing the league's two hottest teams and Super Bowl contenders face-off this late in the year, the game also has some historical interest as being the first matchup between future Hall of Famers Brady and Rodgers.
How both team's respond to that atmosphere will be telling. The Patriots have aced every test they've faced over the past month, but this might be the toughest one yet. Furthermore, there's always the possibility that Brady and Rodgers raise each others game, turning this one into a pressure-packed shootout.
Continuing to build on the momentum generated by this winning streak is imperative for a Pats team that appears to be hitting their stride as they approach the postseason. While every test they've faced and passed has built confidence, coming out of another tough game (this one on the road) unscathed will be another accomplishment for a young, talented team that appears to be hitting it's stride as we head into the season's final month.
