Week 12 Scouting Report: Detroit Lions
Detroit Offense
The Lions may be leading the NFC North, but it's no thanks to an offense whose 18.8 points per game average ranks 26th in the league. They've particularly struggled to run the ball, ranking 30th in the league in both yards (798) and yards per carry (3.2) in the league.
Those struggles have started up front, where a rebuilt Lions line has been subpar at best. The Lions don't have a single lineman with a positive run blocking grade from ProFootballFocus, with starting center Dominic Raiola (-4.7) and left guard Rob Sims (-5.7) having particularly difficult seasons. Furthermore, the offensive line hasn't done a particularly good job of protecting quarterback Matt Stafford. Stafford has been sacked 31 times already, hit another 18 times, and hurried 83 times, with Raiola and Sims again being two of the main culprits, and they'll be without their best lineman, guard Larry Worford, this Sunday as he battles a knee injury.
That weakness up the middle should play right into the Pats recent trend of sending pressure up the A gaps with blitzing linebackers Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins. Both linebackers have gotten more opportunities to rush the passer in the absence of Chandler Jones, and both have proven to be very effective in that role. Another name to watch in the pass rush is newcomer Akeem Ayers, who'll likely be matched up with the solid if unspectacular left tackle Riley Reiff.
Getting pressure on Stafford could be key to forcing the talented quarterback into pressing and making some bad throws. Stafford has an absolute cannon for a right arm, and makes a few "wow" throws every game, but his over-confidence in his arm can lead to some ill-advised decisions. The book on Stafford had previously been that his play on the field wasn't as good as his gaudy statistics would suggest, but those statistics haven't been all that impressive this year. He has only 13 touchdowns to go with 9 interceptions, and has completed only 61.2% of his passes.
Of course, Stafford's mobility should be noted in any attempt to put pressure on the former top overall pick. Stafford isn't necessarily a running quarterback, but he can be slippery in the pocket, with a knack for improvising and keeping the play alive. Stafford is also very capable of making accurate throws on the run, so keeping him trapped in the pocket should be a priority for whatever blitz schemes Matt Patricia has drawn up for this week.
Part of Stafford's statistical drop off can be attributed to Calvin Johnson being limited to only 350 snaps due to injuries. Megatron returned to the lineup in Week 10 after missing five weeks and promptly caught seven passes for 113 yards and a touchdown, but was largely quiet last week in a battle with Cardinals corner Patrick Peterson.
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| Tate has been a welcome addition to the Lions thin WR group |
Tate's emergence puts the Patriots in an interesting position. Normally, it would be a no-brainer to put Darrelle Revis on Johnson, but Revis' bookend Brandon Browner is a poor matchup for the smaller, shiftier Tate. Given Browner's size and physicality, would it benefit the Pats to match him up on the 6'5" Johnson (with constant safety help over the top, of course), allowing Revis to focus on taking away Tate? Browner has the size to contest Megatron on downfield passes, and Revis's excellent open field tackling could be key against the slippery Tate.
The decision of how to handle the starting receivers is by far the biggest decision facing the Patriots coverage-wise, as the Lions lack secondary playmakers behind those two. No other receiver has more than 24 targets, and the tight end duo of Brandon Pettigrew and first round pick Eric Ebron has brought little to the table. Ebron has the athleticism to be a major matchup problem, but inconsistent play has limited his opportunities. Pettigrew was also a first round pick, but poor hands prevented him from ever seizing a significant role in the Lions passing game.
The running back duo of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell has done it's best to compensate for the lack of receiving threats elsewhere on the roster. Both backs are adept at catching the ball out of the backfield, and both are shifty, dangerous players in the open field. The Patriots swarming team defense did an excellent job last week on Colts standout Ahmad Bradshaw, with Jamie Collins' open-field athleticism standing out, and they'll have to repeat that performance this week against another pair of talented pass catchers. A repeat of last week's solid tackling performance will also be essential, as both backs are capable of making the home run play if their line supplies them with a crease to attack.
Detroit defense
How does a team that scores only 18.8 points a game go 7-3 and stay in the playoff race? How about having a monstrous defense that holds opponents to a league-low 15.6 points a game? Yeah, that'll usually do the trick.
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| Ansah is a pass rushing terror on the edge |
The Pats do luck out a little bit, as a third first round pick, defensive tackle Nick Fairley, will miss this weeks game with a knee injury. Fairley had rebounded from a troubling offseason that saw him become the subject of trade rumors to play well this year, particularly against the run, and his absence will make it a little easier for the Pats to contend with the duo of Suh and Ansah.
Even with Fairley missing, I wouldn't expect the Pats to try to run the ball too much against this front. The Pats haven't tried to pound the ball much against other top run defenses (remember Jonas Gray getting only 5 touches against the Jets), and the Lions have allowed league lows in yards per game (68.8) and per carry (3.0) this season. Even without Fairley, the Lions are stocked with underated run defenders like Jason Jones and C.J. Mosley on the defensive line to complement Suh's disruptive presence, and the d-line is backed by one of the league's best downhill, run-stuffing linebackers in DeAndre Levy.
Instead, I'd expect the Pats to look to spread these Lions out and attempt to throw up and down the field on them. The Lions secondary has dramatically outperformed their expectations, with a no-name starting lineup of corners Rashean Mathis, Darius Slay and safeties Glover Quin and former Patriot James Ihedigbo all earning positive coverage grades from ProFootballFocus. However, all four are limited players whose weaknesses have been exposed in the past, and the Pats supposedly "weaponless" passing offense has overwhelmed opponents during their seven game winning streak.
As always, the Pats passing game will start with tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is resetting the bar for play at his position. The Lions may be the best defense in the league, but they are no better equipped to deal with Gronkowski than anyone else; Gronk has simply been that dominant. Expect another big game from the most dominant weapon in football.
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| Former Patriot Ihedigbo has found a home in Detroit |
Another mismatch I'd expect Brady to attack is Shane Vereen against the Lions linebackers in open space. Levy is one of the league's best run defenders, but he struggles in coverage and lacks the foot speed to handle the electric Vereen. Look for Vereen to get the majority of the playing time just a week after seeing Jonas Gray get the majority of the workload in Indy, and look for Vereen to play a big role in the passing game.
The one downside to spreading the field and throwing against Detroit is that becoming too one-dimensional could make it more difficult to protect Brady against the likes of Suh and Ansah. Nothing throws Brady off his game quicker than pressure up the middle, and a dominant effort from Suh could be enough to throw off the offense. I'd expect constant double teams on Suh, with plenty of chips from the backs and tight ends on Ansah on the edge. Regardless of how much extra attention those two receive, stopping them will ultimately come down to execution, and the likes of Nate Solder, Bryan Stork and Dan Connolly will need to bring their "A" game against players of this caliber.
Special teams
The Pats special teams have been excellent for most of the year, but they'll face a challenge from Lions return man Jeremy Ross. Ross hasn't had a touchdown this year, but he's consistently given the Lions good field position on both punts (10.2 yards a return) and kickoff returns (24.9 yards a return). Punter Sam Martin has also been excellent, averaging 46.7 yards a punt, and he'll attempt to neutralize Julian Edelman in the return game.
However, the rest of the Lions special teams units have been average to below-average. Kicker Matt Prater has been an improvement, but he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in Detroit, with three missed field goals already through five games. Their coverage units haven't been great either, allowing an average of 8.5 yards a punt return and 24.4 yards on kickoffs.
Other factors to watch
Answering the bell: After spending the last few weeks beating up on finesse teams built around their passing game, the Pats will switch gears this week and battle a contender built around physical, suffocating defense. Teams built like Detroit have historically given the Patriots problems (see their recent playoff losses to teams like Baltimore, the Giants and Jets), and the Patriots physicality up front remains a relative weakness, no matter what they did against a soft Colts front. Can the Pats answer that physical challenge and take another step towards being the type of team that can win the tough ones in January and February? Sunday's game should give us a better idea.
Megatate: I already touched on this earlier, but I'm personally fascinated to see how the Pats matchup with the duo of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate on the outside. There's something to be said for putting Revis on Tate and Browner on Megatron, but it's also hard to forget Coby Fleener faking Browner out of his shoes on a double move just last week. Would Browner be better utilized beating up on the big, athletic rookie tight end Ebron, with Revis on Megatron and one of the Pats smaller corners (Kyle Arrington? Logan Ryan?) trusted to take on Tate. I wouldn't expect any one matchup to be constant throughout the game, but how the Pats decide to matchup with these receivers will be interesting to say the least.
Keep your composure: The Lions have been one of the chippiest teams in the league for some time now, and the Pats should expect them to come out extra-aggressive in what could be a statement game for their up-and-coming franchise. Even with the stoic Jim Caldwell replacing Jim Schwartz on the sidelines, the Lions remain a team that is best when they play with an edge and emotion. The Patriots are similar in that they seem to play better when they get angry and attempt to impose their will on the opposition (or "throw them out of the club", take your pick of wording), but it will be important for them to keep their composure and play smart in a game that could see a lot of flags early on.
