Week 8 scouting report: Chicago Bears
Chicago offense:
Quite simply, the Bears offense hasn't added up to the sum of it's parts so far in 2014. They boast an impressive collection of playmakers, including arguably the most talented starting receiver duo in the league, but their average of 22.4 points per game ranks a mediocre 18th in the league.
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| Marshall has a knack for making contested catches |
With that said, these are still two very dangerous playmakers capable of taking over a game. Both possess ideal size for an outside receiver, which they typically use to make contested catches even against tight coverage. Jeffery is more of a downfield threat, as his 15.3 yards per catch indicates, while Marshall is a master technician in his role as a possession receiver. Both are also very dangerous after the catch, and solid open field tackling will be key while matching up against these two.
As good as those two are, the Patriots have a unique advantage over most of the league when matching up with them. In Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the Patriots have two corners with the size and physicality to match up with those two monsters one-on-one. If I had to guess, I'd predict Revis shadows Marshall in what figures to be a fascinating matchup between two of the best technicians in the game. This would leave Browner lined up with Jeffery, where he'll be trying to use his strength and press technique to prevent Jeffery from beating him deep.
Things could be difficult for the Pats defense if either one of Revis or Browner goes down. The Patriots have depth at corner, but neither Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington or Logan Ryan have the size to match up with either of the Bears outside receivers. If any of those players are forced into extended duty, look for the Bears to target them early and often.
Marshall and Jeffery get most of the attention on the Bears offense, but the duo of tight end Martellus Bennett and running back Matt Forte could give the Pats more trouble on Sunday. The Pats have had their share of troubles covering the tight end this year, and Bennett is one of the league's most underrated players at that position. At 6'6", 265, Bennett has a combination of size and atheticism that makes him a tough matchup, especially with pass defenses already focused on the Bears' outside receivers. As a result, he actually has more targets (57) and catches (41) than either of the Bears receivers, and his four touchdowns are second behind only Marshall.
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| Forte is a major threat as a runner and receiver |
Stopping those four guys will be a major challenge for the Patriots defense, especially given the absence of Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones. It will also be key for them, as those four players essentially make up the entire Chicago offense. No other player on Chicago's roster has more than Santonio Holmes' 13 targets in the passing game, and backup running back Ka'Deem Carey only has 22 carries on the year.
With playmakers like these, how has the Bears offense been in the middle of the pack? Turnovers certainly haven't helped the cause. The Bears 13 turnovers (1.8 per game) rank them near the bottom of the league, with only Philadelphia, Jacksonville and Washington turning the ball over more frequently so far in 2014. Need proof that those turnovers have adversely effected the season? The Bears are 2-0 when they don't commit a giveaway, and 1-4 when they do.
Much of the blame for this will fall on the shoulders of quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler has done plenty of good in 2014, including a sparkling 67.3% completion percentage, 1,866 passing yards and 14 passing touchdowns, but his seven interceptions have him tied for third-most in the NFL. Cutler also leads the league with 8 fumbles, although he's been fortunate that the Bears have only lost three of those.
Cutler hasn't been helped by his offensive line. The Bears line isn't as bad as it was a few seasons ago, but pass protection remains an issue for the Bears offense. Cutler has been hurried, hit or sacked on nearly a third of his dropbacks, with right tackle Jordan Mills standing out as a weak link. Mills has allowed 24 combined hits, hurries and sacks so far, nine more than any of his teammates. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Bill Belichick move his defensive personnel around to try to get the best matchups against Mills.
The Bears could help Cutler and the passing game out by establishing better offensive balance. The Bears rank fifth in the league in pass attempts, but only 28th in rushing attempts, despite a rushing game that has been effective when turned to. Forte has averaged a solid 4 yards a carry, and the offensive line has earned a solid +9.6 run blocking grade from Profootballfocus. Given the Patriots struggles to stop the run last week against the Jets, getting Forte going on the ground could be advantageous for the Bears. They'll also have to be careful in defending the edge, where the Bears two massive receivers have proven to be excellent blockers.
Chicago defense
The Bears defense has improved from last year's dismal showing, but said improvements have merely brought them from bottom-of-the-barrel to merely mediocre. They've allowed 24.4 points per game, a figure that ranks 22nd in the league.
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| Houston has created a lot of pressure for the Bears D-line |
Despite that revamped defensive line, the Bears have remained soft against the run. Opponents have averaged 4.3 yards per carry against them. That could be a weakness for the Patriots to attack, particularly with the Bears top two linebackers against the run, Lance Briggs and Jon Bostic, both questionable for Sunday. Whether that means Jonas Gray gets a legitimate opportunity as an early down power back remains to be seen, but there could be room to run.
Another weakness to attack could be the Bears linebackers in pass coverage. Opposing quarterbacks have feasted on the Bears linebackers, completing 48-63 (76%) of their passes against them for 545 yards (11.35 yards per catch). Given those numbers, it could be another big week for Shane Vereen in the Patriots passing game.
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| Fuller has lived up to his first round draft status so far |
ITom Brady could have some favorable matchups to utilize in the passing game thanks to the Bears glaring lack of size in the secondary. Neither Jennings (5'8"), Demontre Hurst (5'10") nor Sherrick McManis (5'11") have the size to matchup with either Brandon LeFell or Tim Wright. At 6 feet tall, Fuller is the Bears best option against bigger receivers, and he'd still be giving up four inches to either of Brady's bigger targets. Like most teams, the Bears also don't have an answer for a healthy Rob Gronkowski, as veteran safeties Ryan Mundy and Chris Conte can't match Gronk's combination of size and speed. The Bears have given up three receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends in the past three weeks, including two by Carolina's Greg Olsen, and Gronkowski is an excellent bet to make that four in four weeks this Sunday.
Balance will, as always, be key for the Patriots offense on Sunday. The Pats have the talent to move the ball on the ground and through the air against this Bears defense, and maintaining a level of unpredictability should help them in remaining effective throughout the game. However, if they trend to heavily towards the pass, it could lead to a big game from the Bears pass rushers, who remain the strength of the defense and will be facing a Patriots offensive line that still has plenty to prove.
Another key will be ball security. It's been overshadowed by the offense's tendency to cough it up, but the Bears have quietly been one of the league's best defenses at forcing turnovers. Through seven games, they have eight interceptions and 10 forced fumbles (four of which they've recovered). The Pats have once again been one of the league's best offenses at protecting the football, having only turned it over five times all year, and continuing that solid play could be key on Sunday.
Special teams
The Patriots shook up their special teams last week, giving Danny Amendola a crack at returning kicks, and the veteran receiver seemed to bring a spark to the game. Amendola showed far more decisiveness and burst than Patrick Chung had earlier in the year, adding a threat to what had been a weak unit for much of the past few years. If Amendola can keep that up, it will benefit this team over the long haul.
The Bears for their part have been pretty mediocre so far on special teams, with their punting units particularly struggling. Santonio Holmes has done very little returning punts, averaging merely 5.7 yards a return, and their punt coverage has been horrendous. They've allowed a healthy 10.1 yards a return so far, and have already surrendered a touchdown, numbers that surely have the always dangerous Julian Edelman licking his chops.
Things have been better on kickoffs for the Bears. Chris Williams has brought a spark to the return game since taking over the role in Week 5, averaging 25.8 yards per return. Meanwhile, the coverage team has been solid, holding opponents to only 20.2 yards per return.
Both teams are solid in the kicking game. Robbie Gould and Stephen Gostkowski have been amongst the league's steadiest kickers for some time now, and have continued their solid play into 2014. Meanwhile, rookie Bears punter Pat O'Donnell has been rock solid, while his Patriots counterpart Ryan Allen has flashed at times but struggled somewhat with his consistency.
Other factors to watch
Bearing down
It's been a tumultuous week for the Bears, who have faced stories of locker-room discontent and criticism of their franchise quarterback all week after a sloppy Week 7 loss and a postgame tirade from Brandon Marshall. Cutler has particularly seen his share of criticism, be it from teammates current (Marshall) and past (Brian Urlacher). At 3-4 and two games behind the Lions and Packers, the Bears are starting to run out of time to catch up. This is a team with it's back against the wall.
How will the Bears respond to that? The Patriots went through a similar week following their embarrassing Monday night loss to the Chiefs and responded with a fiery, focused performance in their best game of the season against Cincinnati. If the Bears can come out with a fight like that, the Pats could have their hands full. However, if Chicago folds in the face of adversity, things could get out of control pretty quickly. Things could change in Chicago if they don't turn this season around, and this week could be the game that hinges their season one way or the other.
Protect homefield
Something will have to give when these two teams meet on Sunday. The Pats are having yet another excellent season at Gillette Stadium, as they are one of just seven teams that have yet to lose at home. On the other hand, Chicago comes in tied for the league lead with three road wins. Taking care of business at home takes on extra importance this week with a daunting stretch of the schedule coming up: Chicago, Denver (who will have 10 days of rest following their Thursday night win over the Chargers) and a bye week, followed by a trip to Indy, a home game against Detroit's stingy defense, and back-to-back road games at Green Bay and San Diego. The Pats will need all the momentum they can muster heading into that stretch, and strong performance at home could go a long way.
Where will the pass rush come from?
It's hard to overstate the importance of Chandler Jones' hip injury, which is expected to keep the star defensive end out for a minimum of six weeks. Jones is by far the Patriots best pass rusher and his absence couldn't come at a worse time for the Pats: right before they face Cutler, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers in consecutive weeks.
Jones' injury becomes even harder to overcome given the lack of proven depth behind him. Michael Buchanan would normally slide into his role as the team's athletic edge rusher from the right side of the line, but he's already been placed on season ending IR. Dominique Easley is capable of playing defensive end, but is more effective in an inside role. The Jones injury could open up opportunities for rookie Zach Moore, who flashed his potential as a power rusher in the preseason, as well as new addition Akeem Ayers. Either way, the Pats will have to find some pass rushing juice from somewhere, because it doesn't sound like Jones will be returning any time soon.
Battle royale
I had this game circled on the schedule all offseason as one of my most anticipated matchups of the year thanks to the one-on-one clashes we'll see in the secondary. No matter how they line up, Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner against Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery should be a fun one to watch. Both teams are highly reliant on those players winning their individual matchups on a week-in, week-out basis, and it's rare that those players meet their match on the field. Given Cutler's tendency to trust his arm and receivers, there should be a lot of 50/50 balls up for grabs, and it's entirely possible the game could be decided by a few of those contested plays. Getcha popcorn ready.
