How to beat the Denver Broncos
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| Frustrating Manning will help win the game. (ESPN) |
I took an in-depth look at the strengths and weaknesses in the Broncos offense and defense using Pro Football Focus' stats and analytics. I will start off by saying I expect a heavy dose of the sub packages for the Patriots, mostly using nickel and dime looks. The Patriots will use their corners to make Manning throw perfect passes or to hand the ball off, neither of which he likes to do with regularity. As for on offense, the Patriots will try to run the ball to establish a balanced attack against a banged up linebacking corps of the Broncos. They will likely have over/under coverage on Gronk for the entire game, which could leave players like Edelman and Tim Wright to have openings across the middle and underneath. The Broncos are an extremely athletic defense, which will make stretch plays, anything to the outside, and screens difficult to execute. Given the duo of Von Miller and Demarcus Ware coming off the edge, I could see the Patriots actively chipping them and slowly them down on their rush with tight ends and running backs before the release on their routes, or keeping them in and blocking; essentially doing anything to keep Brady upright and comfortable in the pocket.
Broncos Offensive Line
First, I took a look at their offensive line. Overall, their line does very well in pass protection, mostly due to the lack of opposing teams blitzing and Manning being Manning. In run blocking though, only backups Paul Cornick and Will Montgomery rated out as a positive with a +1.0 and +0.6 respectively, while only logging 169 combined snaps. Their best lineman through this first half of the season has been Louis Vasquez, who PFF has rated as a +4.4 overall, with a +3.8 in pass blocking and a -0.6 in run blocking. Fortunately for the Patriots, Vasquez has not practiced this week, as of Wednesday, and may not be 100% if he does play. If Vasquez does not end up playing, his replacement could be Ben Garland, who has yet to play a snap all year according to the Broncos depth chart. One area they could exploit is at center, where Manuel Ramirez has struggled in blocking all year, logging a -7.3 PFF rating. Left tackle Ryan Clady has also struggled this year, with a rating of -6.6. Both of these players are playing uncharacteristically bad so far this year, and hopefully the Patriots defensive line can take advantage of that. If Wilfork, Walker, or newly acquired Alan Branch can use their size to out-physical the Broncos offensive line, the pocket for Manning may collapse, especially if Belichick gives Hightower or Ayers the green light to blitz from their linebacker positions.
Broncos Passing Game
Naturally, the Broncos are a passing focused team, and they do it well. Manning is still having a great year, but this offense is not like it was last year, despite the addition of Emmanuel Sanders. One thing to note, is that when Manning is blitzed and pressured, he is noticeably worse, garnering a -0.2 and -4.2 respectively. I think this will give Belichick a reason to trust his secondary to hold their own and allow the defense to send an extra rusher early and often. Looking at the pass charts from PFF, Manning favors throwing to his left over his right with a disparity of 80 throws to the left and only 44 to his right. His main focus though is over the middle, where he dumps short pass off to Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, with 131 total throws to the middle of the middle, and 76 of those within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage. This area of the field is critical for stopping Peyton Manning. The Patriots linebackers and safeties will have to be able to secure this part of the field using tight man coverage and hook zones. This is where Chung could be used as a hook zone safety, where he will patrol the short-middle of the field waiting to hit anyone who crosses his sights. Could Brandon Browner stick with Julius Thomas? He very well could. We saw it at times against Martellus Bennett, who is a fairly similar tight end to Julius Thomas. Browner doesn't match up well against any other of the Broncos receivers, which force make Belichick to keep Browner on him, but that could also help in the run game, given Browner's willingness to tackle running backs. If Browner is not solely on Julius Thomas, expect Jamie Collins to be matched up on him due to his athleticism and size. Should J. Thomas line up amongst the line, I would expect him to be bumped on every play from the DE or LB over him, slowing him down before he gets to his route. Revis on the other hand, will likely shadow Demaryius Thomas all over the field. Revis' success against another similar receiver, Brandon Marshall, last week should provide an example on how the Patriots plan to use their secondary.
Manning does have routes that he favors, which are key to focus on. Out routes, go routes, crossing routes, and non-RB screens are his most commonly throw to routes in that order. His most accurate route is the crossing route, where his targets are able to out-run man coverage, and where Manning can pick apart zone coverage. These go primarily to the middle of the field, less than ten yards. These routes constitute drags, digs, and slants, all of which allow the receivers to get yards after the catch. The same can be said for his WR/TE screens, which is also a big component of the Broncos passing game. The routes you are highly unlikely to see Manning throw are corner routes and RB screens. These routes have only been thrown to eight combined times the entire season. As for how to make Manning uncomfortable, where he completes only 46% of his passes, that would come to blitzing. When blitzed, Manning completes only 61% of passes, compared to 71% when not blitzed. When Manning is allowed to sit back in a good pocket with no pressure, Manning is able to complete just under 75% of his passes. This is as good a reason as any to blitz. Combining the blitz with a press-man coverage should allow the Patriots to have their best chances to shutting down this Broncos passing attack.
Here I look at two routes that Manning used to get touchdowns to Julius Thomas:
The problem here, is that you have an undersized DB that provides no jam to Thomas at all, and he quickly exploits that for an easy TD. In this situation, Browner would match up against him, provide a big jam to his should that he hasn't experienced this year, and throw him off his route. Also, a LB could be dropped immediately to play underneath him to take away the quick throws to him.
Here, again, Thomas is given a free release by the LB, and he takes one move and is off to the races. In this situation, it would likely be Jamie Collins providing coverage on Thomas, given that he is on the line of scrimmage. McCourty should be playing center field over the middle of the defense and will likely be fully aware of Thomas trying to cross the field. This situation would provide and over/under coverage on Thomas, which Manning will still throw into, but could result in a turnover.
Broncos Running Game
If there is a weak link in this Broncos team, it may be their running game. Montee Ball is not expected to play, which means banged up Ronnie Hillman will be shouldering the load for Broncos. Hillman is not a large, bruising running back, which has been the bane of the Patriots in the past. Given his shoulder that "landed a little funny" last weekend, and has kept him limited in practice, he is even less likely to be breaking tackles, another issue the Patriots defense has been having. Looking at the stats from PFF, the Broncos like to run the ball between the tackles, which doesn't suit Hillman's speedy style of running. When the Broncos do run it outside of the tackles, or just inside of them, their success is marginal at best. Their PFF ratings are -6.8 to the LT and -6.0 to the RT. They also struggle running up the gut, with a rating of -4.7. This is a promising sign given how poorly the Patriots have played against the run, knowing that the Broncos weakness goes against the Patriots weakness. The Broncos have a tendency to run to the left side of the line with a slight disparity of 35 rushes to the left and 29 to the right.
Broncos Pass Defense
The Broncos secondary was overhauled this offseason with the additions of Aqib Talib, TJ Ward, and Bradley Roby. This is another strength the Broncos. Chris Harris is performing at another level thanks to Rahim Moore and TJ Ward playing over the top and Aqib Talib able to take some of the more difficult match ups. Talib is yet again maintaining his loud style of play with the Broncos, making plays all over the field. As for the pass rush, there is no duo more dangerous right now that Von Miller and Demarcus Ware. Miller in particular is having a dominating year, with 10 sacks and 25 quarterback hurries. They will be going against the likes of Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer. Vollmer has increased his level of play since his struggles in the beginning of the year, with a PFF rating of +6.1 overall and a +7.1 in pass protection. Nate Solder on the other hand, has struggled in pass protection with a -5.3 rating, including a number of bad holding penalties and four sacks given up. Miller almost never drops back into coverage despite being a LB, which can help the Patriots use their tight ends on shorter routes. Brandon Marshall is having an underrated year both against the run and in the pass game. He truly can cover a variety of players using his athleticism and he will be a headache for the Patriots. Compared to LB Nate Irving, who struggles against the pass with a rating of -3.6. Given the LBs struggles and lack of true depth, Tim Wright could be left against a good match up, which the Patriots and Tom Brady should happily target. Brady likes to favor the left side of the field when it comes to passing, which would mean targeting Talib more than Chris Harris. One area of clear weakness in the Broncos secondary is rookie CB Bradley Roby, who comes in with a -3.7 rating. This is where the Patriots should attack aggressively, whether it be with LaFell, Edelman, or Amendola. TJ Ward has also not been stellar in pass coverage, despite his history of being a disruptive force in the run game. The Broncos secondary is good, but it is still flawed, and the Patriots will have to be creative in order to exploit it.
Broncos Rush Defense
This is one area that the Patriots will need to attack early so that Miller and Ware cannot strictly go into pass rush mode and effect Brady. The front seven of the Broncos are not intimidating enough for McDaniels to not run the ball. Running up the middle, should provide the Patriots the most success in the run game thanks to the run blocking prowess of Bryan Stork, Dan Connolly (+2.9), and Ryan Wendell (+3.0). The Patriots have run more successfully between Dan Connolly and Nate Solder than any other spot in the line, which could help should Miller take himself out of plays rushing the passer. One thing to note: the Broncos have only allowed one team to rush for over 100 yards, and that was the Seahawks who rushed for 129 in their overtime victory over the Broncos, despite Marshawn Lynch only averaging 3.4 yards per carry. This shows that teams usually don't run the ball due to being down, which allows the Broncos to pass rush and sit back and make plays, which ends up in easy wins for the Broncos. That is why the Patriots must establish a run game, and stick to it. Sustained drives, keeping Manning off the field, is how to win this game.
This game will be a good game. These two teams are at the top of their games, with home field advantage already into consideration. This team has been built to beat the Broncos, just as other teams have been built to beat the Patriots. It is a home game, in a cold and windy Gillette Stadium. We know how Manning does in the cold, at Foxborough, against a defense similar to this one. Regardless of how this game ends, it will not be the end of the world, or the crowning of the Super Bowl champion. There is still half of a regular season to go, still the playoffs, and a lot can happen. But this is how the New England Patriots can beat the Denver Broncos and that cocky son of a bitch Manning.
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