Predicting Patriots vs Vikings Week 2 - PatriotsLife roundtable
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| Does Adrian Peterson's absence guarantee the Patriots' first win? |
It's pretty obvious that when you poll a couple Patriots bloggers, they are probably going to pick their team to win. That was the case last week, and not a single person got it right as the team lost. A couple of us did expect it to be close though. Little did we know it would be a blowout going the other way.
This week is no different, we differ greatly on how we think the game will go though. Here's a roundup of some of our writers predictions for the season opener - Minnesota vs New England.
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Patriots by 11
The Pats don't lose back to back games very often, but they also don't get manhandled by any team very often.
The team showed some serious problems in their week 1 loss to Miami - namely in run defense and everything on the offensive line. Fortunately, half of that is fixable
The run defense should certainly improve this week, as long as Bill Belichick is not stubborn and adjusts to the terrible experiment of playing his players out of position. Chandler Jones is clearly not wired to be an outside linebacker in the 3-4, and ranked dead last in the league when playing that position for the first time last week (according to ProFootballFocus). If Bill realizes he wasn't playing to his player's strengths and adjusts back to a 4-3, then the team's defensive line should not be gashed as bad as last week (though I still think the Vikings will have success running). Oh, and the league's best runningback being deactivated for the game doesn't hurt either.
The offensive line? That's another issue. That is more of a personnel issue. The Patriots have a lot of unproven players on the interior of the line, and the stars - Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder have not played up to par through preseason or the opener. It will be a long day against a stout Vikings front if the line can't protect Brady. I don't think they can, and I think that directly affects players like Aaron Dobson or Kenbrell Thompkins who make their living more outside the numbers. The screen game and short passes are the name of the game, so Julian Edelman should have a big game and maybe even Danny Amendola will show up.
The Patriots will win, it won't be pretty but in the end it will be relatively convincing.
Patriots 27, Vikings 16
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Patriots by 17
In many fans eyes, the Patriots went from being undeniable Super Bowl contenders to a potential doormat after a single bad half against Miami in Week One.
The fact of the matter is that the Week One debacle was far from the first time the Patriots have gotten thoroughly outplayed in the Belichick/Brady era. Remember back in 2010, when a 34-14 loss to the downtrodden Cleveland Browns served as the highpoint of Peyton Hillis's brief run as a productive NFL player? How about 2006, when a 9-3 Pats team went into Miami and got shut out 21-0? And, of course, who could forget the 31-0 opening day loss to the Bills, days after the shocking release of Lawyer Milloy?
Like every NFL team, the Pats occasionally lay an egg and get thumped. Historically, they've responded with avengence. The game after that embarrassing Browns loss? A 39-26 beatdown of Pittsburgh. That 2006 Miami shutout? Followed by a dominating 40-7 win over the Texans. And, of course, the Pats "hated their coach" so much after that Bills loss that they beat the Eagles convincingly the next week and lost only one more game the rest of the way en route to a Super Bowl.
Simply put, Brady and Belichick have proven time and time again to be far too competitive to not bring their "A" game following an uncharacteristically poor performance. Combine that with the overall talent disparity between the Pats and Vikings and you have the recipe for a nice rebound of a win. Combine that with the sudden deactivation of Adrian Peterson, the face of the Vikings franchise and engine that drives their otherwise limited offense, and you have the recipe for a bloodbath.
The Miami game reminded us that this Pats team has it's flaws, but they are still a very good team with a lot of good players. They'll remind you of that this Sunday.
Patriots 34, Vikings 17
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Patriots by 14
I am not going to lie, prior the the news that Adrian Peterson was deactivated for being a scum of the earth human being, I had the Patriots losing their second straight game to open a 2014 season that began with unprecedented optimism. I expressed this to friends, family, and co-workers over the course of the week and was met with stern disagreement.
But I think the team has some serious problems. Don't get me wrong, I can see them rolling in this game and showing steady improvement in the areas that led to their downfall last week in Miami. But the issues on the offensive line we saw last season appear to have worsened, and that is very, very bad. The Patriots cannot win if Brady is consistently under pressure, plain and simple. We know that he is largely ineffective when he is facing the heat, and there is no better example than last week. God knows Brady is not mobile enough to evade rushers like Cameron Wake. He is good at sliding up in the pocket, but if there's no pocket, there is no chance.
I don't have a ton of confidence in the offensive line right now and thus, I don't have a lot of confidence in our offense. The D-Line looked porous as well, and our linebackers weren't overly impressive either. Furthermore, Jamie Collins, our most versatile linebacker, appears to be nursing a leg injury. Let me remind you the team has little to no depth at that position.
But the absence of Peterson does change everything. He is the best running back in the league and the Vikings offense will be essentially inept without him. I think the Patriots will roll tomorrow by 14 points. I do anticipate some struggles still, particularly in the areas of concern I mentioned earlier. One thing I am keeping an eye on this week as I feel it is a key for the team moving forward is the effectiveness of Aaron Dobson.
Losing to Miami in Week 1 was concerning, but not reason to press the panic button. If we lose to an AP-less Minnesota team tomorrow, there may be reason to slam that button.
Patriots 27, Vikings 13
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Patriots by fourteen
If your name is Roger Goodell, you are probably not having the best year. Good ol' Roger knows what it is like to be a Maine lobster with all the hot water he is in. Despite everything going on at NFL headquarters, I am only focused on Sunday's game against Minnesota. Man did that sound like a Belichickian response!
Before the news about Adrian Peterson's indictment on charges of child abuse and being deactivated for tomorrow's game, I think it wasn't out of line to say that the Vikings had a shot. Now without a solid ground game and being one dimensional, I think the Vikings chances of winning decreased a lot. Hopefully, I do not eat my words later!
As Pats fans, we all know that they regroup after a loss better than any other team in the league. Facts are facts. Defensively, the Patriots evaluate your weapons and devise schemes to eliminate the threats. I would not want to play a game of Risk against Bill Belichick. Since the Vikings largest asset will not be suiting up, the Pats defense will adjust and focus on our dear friend Cordarelle Patterson. Whom in my opinion will line up in the backfield more than he did in week 1. The defense can expect to see a ton of screen passes to Patterson. Also, we have to keep tabs on Vikings tight end, Kyle Rudolph, who has Gronk like tendencies. The key for the defense will be if the Pats get any pressure on Cassel. Yes I am talking to you Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones. I think the Pats defense will cause headaches for the Vikings, leading to a few costly turnovers.
Everyone keeps talking about how the Vikings head coach, Mike Zimmer, might use the same strategy when he helped beat the Patriots as the defensive coordinator for Cincinnati. Hate to burst that bubble but you don't have the same personnel as you did in Cincy. Offensively, I expect Brady to be fired up and come out guns blazing. I believe the Pats will come out with playaction early to test the Vikings secondary. If the offensive line cannot pass protect, I expect a quick adjustment of more screens to Vereen and Edelman to keep the defense honest and help out our o-line. Honestly, I think Brady will light a fire under his o-line's posterior and he will get the protection he needs. Expect Gronk to be a redzone monster and Edelman to have a double digit reception night. LaFell might make an appearance as Brady tries out the deep ball. Hell, we might even see a Brady scramble. Alright, this is more wishful thinking on my part!
Let's not panic people, we always come out on top! Plus, it could be worse. We could be Bills, Jets, or Dolphin fans!
Final Score: Patriots 31 Vikings 17
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Paul Murphy (@_prmurphy)
Patriots by 5
After debating and conferring with his brothers, Minnesota Vikings owner, Ziggy Wilf has decided to sit Adrian Peterson. Wilf and his two brothers are billionaires. Each has made his mark in different industries. It is time to make a stand. All of them remember how painful the booze cruise was on the family.
Patriots will force Matt Cassel to throw after shutting down the Vikings' running game. Jones and Ninkovich will pressure the Minny QB all afternoon. Tom Brady will take advantage of the short fields with two 2nd half drives for tds.
Patriots 20 Vikings 15
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Patriots by 4
The Patriots will struggle again in this game, but I think they still pull it out in a tight one.
The main reason being that Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski will be on the same page this game, and that'll spell trouble for the Vikings' defense.
Julian Edelman will continue to do his thing, but the offensive line will have to do a MUCH better job of protecting Brady than they did against Miami. I ultimately think that will be the case. Granted, it won't be perfect, but I think it will be enough to get the Patriots in the win column against the Vikings.
Patriots 24, Vikings 20
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Patriots by 13
There truly isn't a better bounce back team in the NFL than the New England Patriots. They've shown multiple times that they can follow a bad game with a great game. That's no fluke. Bill Belichick is a mastermind at making adjustments, so expect to see a different Patriots team than the one we saw in Miami.
The Patriots should solidify their run defense as I believe Belichick has had a huge emphasis on that this week, especially considering the fact that
The pass defense isn't a concern at all. That will be fine. Often times against Miami last week, when the Dolphins abandoned the run, we shut them down. There were two consecutive drives in the second half where Miami turned to the pass and the defense stopped them both times, which killed Miami's momentum. Unfortunately, the Patriots offense did nothing following those drives, giving the defense no time to rest. Can't expect the defense to hold up if you don't give them time to rest against a fast paced offense. That was a perfect storm, so to speak, against Miami last Sunday.
Overall, I anticipate the defense being much better. I'm not hitting the panic button yet, so I'm not concerned. It's a talented defense that had a bad game and didn't get any help from the offense. With Belichick at the helm, things hopefully, and should, get better.
As for the offense, I want to see Aaron Dobson in place of Brandon LaFell. I think that make a big difference. If the Patriots can get Aaron Dobson stretching the field, that opens up tons of space for the rest of the receivers. I expect Rob Gronkowski to have a greater workload this week, and with Gronk on the field, he will often draw double teams which opens up even more space for other receivers. Should they choose to try and take away Julian Edelman, same concept as before. That creates more space and one on one match ups. This offense has a talented receiving corps, so the Vikings will have to pick and choose who they want to try and take away and who they want to leave in a one on one matchup.
I don't anticipate anything special from the run game. I believe it will be your typical day on the ground. Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen will both rack up some yards, along with
Edelman and Danny Amendola on some reverses.
The entire Patriots offense revolves around my one and only concern: the offensive line. Without the line, this team is in trouble. We don't have Dante Scarnecchia to work his magic anymore. Dave DeGuglielmo needs to figure something out because last week wasn't working. I honestly think it has everything to do with consistently putting in different players on the line. The line needs time to become cohesive, and the only way that happens is by letting the same guys play together. I am nervous about this offensive line, but I think it's going to come together. Players hear what the media has to say, so I expect the line to be a little pissed off and extra motivated from here on out. We'll see a meaner, more aggressive offensive line this week. If these five guys can gel, protect Brady, and get some push up the field this week, it's going to be a great Sunday for the Patriots.
Patriots 33, Vikings 20
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Pats by 18
Welcome to week 2 NFL fans. Maybe the worst week of public relations for any sports league EVER and yet here I am still previewing the Patriots game. So here is my week 2 preview, Patriots at Vikings.
What I said in my season preview...
Two road games to start the season allows for Gillette Stadium to host more fall concerts! Just kidding, but seriously as long as the Pats stay off of Lake Minnetonka they will beat up on old friend Matt Cassell. The Vikings are a couple of years and the development of rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater away from being relevant, despite having Adrian Peterson. Pats win 31-13.
So much has changed, lets start with last Sunday.
First, the Patriots lost in Miami, a potential result I could see, but certainly didn't expect. The Pats Oline was worse than I thought possible, but the biggest surprise was the Dline's struggle with Miami's running game. I thought that Miami would have good and bad drives throughout the game, but never did I think they would run all over the Pats D like they did.
So as the Pats were matched up with one of the top running backs in the NFL in Adrian Peterson and maybe the fastest runner in the NFL in Cordarelle Patterson. I had visions of Vikings running circles around the defense and racking up over 200 yards of rushing alone.
But the Patriots rarely lose two games in a row, so I still had the Pats winning just a hell of a lot closer and likely with a last second field goal from Stephen Gostkowski.
Then yesterday Adrian Peterson was indicted on charges of child abuse and deactivated for Sundays game against the Pats. While the Pats gameplan is set and they only have a walkthrough left before playing the Vikings, I'm sure the emphasis will now be on stopping Patterson instead of Peterson. If old friend Matt Cassel can beat Pats handing off to someone I've never heard of and throwing to guys who aren't owned in any fantasy leagues then the Pats should just tank the rest of the seaon and get the number 1 overall pick. Because a team that can't beat those guys has no business winning their division, their conference or the Super Bowl.
In the end the Pats win 31-13, just like I thought orignally, but with a game that plays totally differently and that is why we watch the NFL every week.
Patriots 31, Vikings 13
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Patriots by 10
I agree with Mike Reiss that the Patriots will go back to a 4-3 defense and put bigger defensive lineman on the line so Chandler Jones can rush the passer rather than plugging 2 gaps. I think the Patriots will sell out against the run and we will get a real sense of whether the secondary can handle Patterson, Rudolph, and Jennings.
I believe they will give up a big play early in the game but Cassel will turn over the ball more than once. Look for Tim Wright to be targeted often and Brady to connect to multiple receives due to the Vikings taking away Edelman. Gronk will still not be 100% but may get a td when the Pats are in the red zone like last week. Statistically Brady will get around 300 yards and Shane Vereen will have over 100 total yards (receiving and rushing). Patterson will have a big day with at least one touchdown and tons of combined yards. With Peterson out I see Jerick McKinnon getting the start, he will have one big run but will only gain 60 yards on the ground.
Patriots, 30 Vikings 20
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Patriots by three
Here's the thing, I say Patriots by three and I say that for one reason only.. Adrian Peterson. With his indictment today for child abuse,
If he were to play then I think the Vikings win it easily. I know ill probably get blasted for this but I am not confident in the Patriots ability to win right now. The offensive and defensive line was absolute crap against the Dolphins. Brady was left in the pocket with absolutely no time to throw, and the Dolphins ran rapid on us the entire game. Add that in with the fact that Lafell looked like he belonged in the CFL and a second half that Patriots fans would rather never remember, and you've got one hell of a challenge against you this week. I do think however that Gronkowski will play better than he did last week, and Dobson will have a strong comeback. Therefore im saying Patriots by three points. Its going to be close, but I think we can squeak it out.
Patriots 17 - Vikings 14
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Patriots by 14
Well it’s simple really. I wrote a prediction about an hour before the Vikings decided to declare Peterson inactive, not long after the indictment news came out. I predicted that the Pats would win by 7. But without AP, the Vikings can’t make this a close game. While I believe the Patriots still won’t look like the Superbowl team we all pray that they are, they will get the job done convincingly. I had stipulated that the Patriots would win with little conviction against the Vikings if Peterson was good to go. Now I believe they have no choice but to dominate. Not only have the Vikings lost their best player, they don’t have the look of a team that could be galvanised by these sorts of events and cause an upset. These Vikings are young and inexperienced, and Peterson was their one source of reliability. To have off-field allegations thrown down about your leader by the NFL is one thing. To have the law intervene is another. While I still believe Cordarelle Patterson could have a big game (I chalked him up for a touchdown previously with hefty yardage and I stand by it), he can’t beat the Patriots on his own.
So with that I will stick with my original calls of a Gronkowski red-zone touchdown, lots of yardage for Dobson on his return as he proves that he was worth his pick when the Patriots forewent Cordarelle Patterson for more picks in the 2013 draft. Brady will still be sacked heavily as the O-line collapses under more heavy pressure, but while I predicted the defense to do well and force turnovers in Minnesota, they have been handed the opportunity to shine almost by default. Sacks galore, an interception for Revis and the Patriots erase the bad taste left by the Dolphins to even out at 1-1.
Patriots 27, Vikings 13
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Patriots by 7
"Everyone has a plan until the get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson.
Last week the Patriots had a plan for the second half until the Dolphins punched them in the mouth. Then that plan went out the window. And I'm fine with that. Because this week when the Vikings punch back they will have experienced it and won't abandon whatever plan they might have. They Patriots always have an early season game where they just crap the bed. Might as well get that one out of the way in the first game and lets move on from there. They are also a team that doesn't lose back to back games very often. Thats why I think they will treat last week as a wakeup call and step up to the challenge this week. Whether that challenge includes Adrian Peterson or not this week remains to be seen. If the Vikings hold him out then I believe the margin of victory will be larger but for now I believe the win by a touchdown. [Edit: He is deactivated]
Patriots 24, Vikings 17
