How many receptions will Aaron Dobson have? Over/Under: 45

Photo from Steve Balestrieri/Sports Reel Boston

Aaron Dobson returned from his foot injury to aid Jimmy Garoppolo in kicking Ryan Mallett to the curb, and it alleviated many concerns I would have had about this season's over/under projection of 45 catches.

While a 16 game projection for any Patriots receiver seems a bit ridiculous, a 12 game slate seems far more reasonable to estimate, which means that a player like Dobson would need to catch roughly 4 balls a game. If he stays healthy, all the better, as he would accumulate 64 catches, well over the estimate. With Dobson playing that exact total of 12 games he accumulated 37 catches while learning (and adapting to) a new offense which is notoriously difficult to pick up.

It's reasonable to see a catch a game growth from Dobson even in that 12 games, which will certainly put him over the 45 catch limit. My personal fearless forecast is 65 catches for 900 yards and 7 touchdowns.






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