How many TD passes will Brady throw this year? Over/Under: 30

Last week I kicked off our preseason Over/Under series focused on Patriots regular season wins, with the Over/Under set at 12.5 wins. The supreme confidence our readership has in this years squad was reflected in the results, with a resounding 123 votes in favor of the over compared with just 9 for the under.

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Now that we have established what everyone thinks about the team's chances in the regular season, I want to shift gears to some individual stats. And who better to start with than the Golden Boy. After what some would consider a "down" year for Brady, I'm eager to hear how people think his stat line will look last year now that he has an improved group of receivers with more experience under their belts.

Over/Under: 30 TD passes
Prediction: Over-32 TD passes

I am going with the over this year for a couple reasons. Firstly, I think last years dip to 25 touchdowns can be attributed to a depleted arsenal of receiving targets- easily the least talented group Brady has worked with in years, including several rookies and veteran newcomers who struggled to adapt to the system and with Brady himself. The offensive line was also porous at times, allowing Brady to hit the turf 40 times.

Those receivers who struggled at times last year (Amendola, Thompkins, Dobson) should be in a better position to succeed this year. I do not need to go into much detail on the impact of Gronk either. When he is in there, the offense is a completely different unit, and Brady's numbers sky-rocket. Obviously you can never count on big #87 being out there, but if he is, Brady should pile up the touchdowns with relative ease.

Newcomer Brandon LaFell should also help to bolster Brady's numbers, as he is a big, red zone threat, something the team lacked last season. Finally, if what we saw from Shane Vereen on Friday night is any indication of what is to come, he could be one of the more dangerous receiving backs in the league this year.

In eleven seasons as the starting quarterback, Brady has reached the 30 TD plateau just 4 times. While injuries have the ability to derail everything, I think if this year's offense can remain relatively intact, Brady is poised to reach that mark once again.

Year	Team	CMP%	YDS	TD	INT	Rating
2013	Patriots	60.5	4,343	25	11	87.3
2012	Patriots	63.0	4,827	34	8	98.7
2011	Patriots	65.6	5,235	39	12	105.6
2010	Patriots	65.9	3,900	36	4	111.0
2009	Patriots	65.7	4,398	28	13	96.2
2008	Patriots	63.6	76	0	0	83.9
2007	Patriots	68.9	4,806	50	8	117.2
2006	Patriots	61.8	3,529	24	12	87.9
2005	Patriots	63.0	4,110	26	14	92.3
2004	Patriots	60.8	3,692	28	14	92.6
2003	Patriots	60.2	3,620	23	12	85.9
2002	Patriots	62.1	3,764	28	14	85.7
2001	Patriots	63.9	2,843	18	12	86.5
2000	Patriots	33.3	6	0	0	42.4
Career		63.4	49,149	359	134	95.7