On the Bubble: Ryan Mallett's fate tied directly to Jimmy Garappolo's development
Typically, the "On the Bubble" series has focused on predicting whether the player at hand will make the team. In the case of Ryan Mallett, the future is nearly impossible to predict because his fate is most likely dependent on an unknown: how quickly second round pick Jimmy Garappolo can adapt to the speed and complexities of the NFL?
Make no mistake, Garappolo was drafted to, at the very least, take Mallett's job as the backup/heir apparent to Tom Brady. With his contract set to expire after the 2014 season, Mallett was already a lame duck even before the Patriots spent a second round pick on his eventual replacement.
Despite this, Mallett has a decent chance of staying for one more year as Brady's backup if the Patriots don't feel Garappolo is ready for that responsibility yet. If it's best for Garappolo's long term development for him to sit back and soak everything in for a year, there's no harm done in going back to an established backup going into his fourth year in the offense.
Of course, no one knows how long it will take for Garappolo to get acclimated to the NFL game. His accuracy and quick release are certainly up to pro standards, and Garappolo displayed plenty of leadership/moxie/toughness in college. However, Garappolo's collegiate accomplishments all happened against a lower level of competition at FCS Eastern Illinois while running a very simple, spread offense that was heavily reliant on short, precision passing. While this makes him a fit for some of the staples of the Patriots offense, Garappolo will have to prove he can handle a far more diverse and complex playbook at the NFL level.
Things could change drastically for Mallett if Garappolo impresses early on. If the rookie looks capable of handling backup duties, there's no point of keeping Mallett around, especially since all he'll be doing at that point is taking up some of the rookie's practice reps. In that case, the Patriots would likely cut Mallett, using his roster spot to keep one more body at a logjammed position (wide receiver?) elsewhere on the team, while saving $776,976 against the cap in the process.
It wouldn't be unprecedented for the Patriots to pick a rookie over a former high draft pick at the position either: in 2009 undrafted rookie Brian Hoyer beat out 2008 third round pick Kevin O'Connoll for the backup job vacated by Matt Cassell.
Mallett's lame duck status has prompted many a Patriots fan to wonder about his trade value, and his collegiate stardom seems to have created some unrealistic expectations. In reality, Mallett has little trade value because he's shown little to suggest he's a quality NFL starter. His supporters can point out that he's (thankfully) never had the opportunity to play meaningful snaps, but he hasn't impressed in the preseason or in practice. He does flash an absolute canon for an arm, but inconsistency has plagued his game during his Patriots career. His decision making is often shaky, and his accuracy has a frightening tendency to disappear for stretches, possibly thanks to flawed mechanics. At this point, the Patriots would probably be lucky to get anything more than a sixth rounder in return for him.
With Mallett's long-term future in New England virtually non-existent, the former Razorback is now essentially auditioning for his next job. It will be interesting to see how Mallett reacts to that, and whether he can step his game up another level. Doing so could build a little more trade value (although the idea of getting a second or third rounder for him would still be ludicrous), while also giving the Patriots a much tougher decision to make.
Wonder what other players are in danger of being cut? Check out more of our On The Bubble series.
