History says: Don't fear Sammy Watkins

Courtesy of USATSI

Sammy Watkins is projected to take over the AFC East. If we can learn anything from history, it would be that Sammy Watkins will at best produce average numbers. The Buffalo Bills moved up to the 4th overall spot to draft Sammy Watkins. He was immediately serenaded and glorified by everyone in the media. Historically wide receivers don't do well their rookie year. Especially when you consider that its E.J. Manuel throwing him the ball and it doesn't scare me in the least. Let's break down some of the numbers.

These are the top 5 rookie campaigns by a wide receiver in history. (Minimum 50 receptions)

1. Anquan Boldin, 2003 - 101 receptions, 1,377 yards
2. Randy Moss, 1998 - 69 receptions, 1,313 yards
3. Terry Glenn, 1996 - 90 receptions, 1,132 yards
4. Michael Clayton, 2004 - 80 receptions, 1,193 yards
5. Marques Colston, 2006 - 70 receptions, 1,038 yards  

Statistics provided by sportingcharts.com

So as you can see, Watkins' numbers would have to be way above the curve for him to be feared around the league. Suppose Sammy Watkins produces the 3rd best rookie campaign of all time. That would put him right around 80 receptions for 1200 yards. That is excellent but is it worth fearing? If you think it is, then perhaps the whole league should fear Julian Edeleman who had 105 receptions for 1,056 yards last year. I'll kindly remind everyone once more who is throwing Sammy Watkins the ball. E.J. Manuel. An unproven QB who had 11 TDs and nine interceptions last year through 10 games.

History shows that Sammy Watkins will go through some growing pains. A young QB, bad weather conditions and a run first game plan. All these factors will limit Watkins' overall production. I predict Watkins' 2014 numbers will be right around 53 receptions, 710 yards and 5 TDs.

If anyone should be in fear, it should be Sammy Watkins. He'll be seeing plenty of my good friends, Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.