Could the Patriots trade for Andre Johnson?
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| How good would Brady to Andre Johnson sound? |
"Is this still the place for me?"
“When you bring a new coach in, you go through a rebuilding process. Some people say it’s not. Some people say it’s a quick fix. Everybody has their own opinion. But I’ve been through the situation more than once.”
“I just look at my career. … I’ve only been to the playoffs twice. I think we’ve only had three winning seasons. I don’t think any player wants to experience that. I think over time it can become very frustrating. And this offseason has been very frustrating for me; beginning of the offseason, I should say. That’s just kind of where I’m at right now.”
Johnson has been remarkably level-headed with the Texans lack of success throughout his career, but his frustration seems to be boiling over as he approaches the end of his career. He made his frustration clear multiple times during last year's 2-14 season, including a verbal altercation with then-quarterback Matt Schaub, and will reportedly stay away from the team's OTAs and minicamps this offseason.
If Johnson becomes available, could the Patriots figure out a way to bring him to Foxborough? The fit is obvious: the Patriots could use one more dynamic playmaker for Tom Brady, and Johnson clearly wants to close out his career playing meaningful football for a championship contender.
However, the logistics make such a move harder to pull off in reality than in theory. As things currently stand, the Patriots have about $7.8 million in cap room, a figure that includes neither the approximately $2 million that will go towards signing their rookie class or the money for incentives that Vince Wilfork could realistically reach.
The biggest problem lies with Johnson's seven year, $67.80 million contract, which still has three backloaded years on it. The Texans would take on the remaining guaranteed money on his deal by trading him (a cap hit of nearly $12 million in dead money), but Johnson would still carry a cap hit of $11 million in 2014, with charges of $11.5 million in 2015 and $12 million in 2016.
Can the Patriots create enough room to take on a contract like that? The key domino to fall in that scenario would be Dan Connolly, whose release would create another $3 million in space. That would bring the Pats to $10.8 million in space, leaving them still slightly short of the space needed to accomodate Johnson's deal. They would then need to clear out another $2-3 million to fit Johnson and their rookie draft class, which they could accomplish with a series of cuts (say bye bye to the likes of Tavon Wilson and Jake Bequette) and restructures (perhaps extensions for Devin McCourty and Stephen Gostkowski could clear up some room).
The Patriots typically like to carry some cap room into the season, which Bill Belichick has used in the past to acquire players at the trade deadline. A trade for Johnson would essentially eliminate that, as well as their ability to sign a veteran tight end like Dustin Keller. The Patriots would be betting that adding a weapon of Johnson's caliber would be the final move the team needs, as they wouldn't have space to do much of anything after that trade.
Another factor to consider: what is Houston's motivation to make such a move? Unless Johnson goes the full T.O. route and tries to force his way out of town (possible, but would be extremely out of character), the Texans have little incentive to trade their superstar receiver. With a new head coach, an excellent draft class, and most of the roster that went 12-4 in 2012 intact, the Texans have plenty of reasons to expect dramatic improvement on the field this year. In fact, if they can get just serviceable quarterback play out of Ryan Fitzpatrick/Tom Savage, a return to the playoffs wouldn't be out of the question. The Texans can afford to swallow the dead money on Johnson's deal and move on if they really want to (they'd actually save $3.6 million against the cap), but they'd be needlessly weakening their chances at making a quick turnaround.
As for what it would take to land Johnson in a trade? It's going to take a lot more than Ryan Mallett, I can tell you that. I'd estimate that the Texans would want at least a second round pick in return for a receiver who caught 109 balls for 1,407 yards last season.
I'd keep an eye on the situation in Houston to see if it gets worse, but I wouldn't expect much as a Patriots fan. Houston really has all the leverage in this situation, and it would be extremely out of character for Johnson to push the situation to the point where the Texans feel inclined to make a deal. Furthermore, Johnson's monster contract would make him a sizable financial investment, and the Patriots would have to jump through some serious hoops just to make the deal financially possible. Never say never, but this is probably a longshot, despite how nice it sounds in theory.
