What does Seattle's big Earl Thomas contract mean for Devin McCourty?
It's a deal that pushes the market value for elite safety play even higher. At $10 million a year, Thomas's deal exceeds the $9 million annual average Jairus Byrd got from the Saints. Also, the relatively short length of the deal will allow Thomas another crack at free agency at age 29, giving him a chance to land one more big contract before exiting his prime.
This is great news for the Seahawks, but troubling news for the Patriots, who have their own star safety due for a new deal next year. That would be Devin McCourty, who will make $5.1 million in 2014, the final year of his rookie deal, before hitting the open market.
There's no way around it: the Patriots will have to pay up to keep McCourty. The rapid expansion of the salary cap means bigger payouts for elite talent, and safety is no exception. Prior to this offseason, there were only three safeties (Eric Weddle, Dashon Goldson and Eric Berry) with an average cap hit exceeding $8 million a year. This offseason has already seen two players (Byrd and Thomas) get $9 million or more annually, and those deals could theoretically be a bargain in a few years, when the cap is expected to be in the $160 million range (this years cap is set at $135 million).
Furthermore, with Thomas off the board, McCourty immediately becomes the crown jewel of the 2015 free agent safety class. McCourty has proven to be an elite player at the position, earning PFF's highest grade for a safety in 2014, and he'll still only be 27 when he hits the market. He might no be able to match the $10 million a year Thomas just got (although who knows with the cap expected to jump again next year), but he's a Pro Bowl level player in his prime: he's getting paid no matter what. The only question is whether that pay day comes from the Patriots or someone else.
This puts the onus on the Patriots to lock up McCourty with a long-term extension now, before he hits the market. Doing so will ensure that the Patriots keep one of their best young players and a respected leader (there aren't many non-quarterbacks who get elected as a team captain in their fourth year) for the remainder of his prime. It will also be the most cost-effective to do so, as McCourty will surely cost more to keep a year from now.
McCourty's value will almost surely go up simply because of the expanding cap, but it's also possible that his value skyrockets thanks to the Patriots offseason additions. McCourty has proven to be an excellent player already, but he's never been a part of a secondary this deep. With Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner presumably playing lock-down defense on the outside, opposing quarterbacks will likely have to force more throws and make more panicked mistakes. This could lead to more opportunities for interceptions for McCourty, whose responsible, risk-averse style of play has led to fewer "splash plays" in the past than Thomas or Byrd. It's entirely possible that McCourty jumps into $8-9 million a year range in GM's eyes after a year of opportunistic play alongside Revis.
Simply put, McCourty is an excellent player and, as the primary communicator in the secondary, an indispensable cog in the Patriots defense. There is no reason to take the risks inherent in letting him reach the market next year, especially since his value and leverage increases every day that goes by without an extention. Pay the man.
