Free Agency Review: Top 10 Overpays (so far)
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| via Fancloud |
Brandon Albert, Miami Dolphins (five years, $47 million)
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| Miami paid up to get Albert to protect Tannehill's blindside |
However, that still doesn't make the numbers on Albert's deal make sense, especially compared to what the other top tackles got. It's a lot of money for a player who's missed 7 games with injuries in the past two years, will turn 30 in November, and has always fallen short of "elite" status.
His deal is worth $9.5 million more than what Eugene Monroe got from Baltimore, despite Monroe being four years younger than Albert. It's $12 million more than what Arizona paid to land Jared Veldheer, an extremely talented 26 year old who played extremely well in 2012 before losing most of 2013 to a torn triceps. It's $17 million more than Bucs spent on Anthony Collins, a 28 year old coming off of a spectacular season in pass protection.
The saving grace of this deal is it's structure, which frontloads 14,900,000 of it's $20 million guaranteed onto the first two years of the contract. After those first two years, in which Albert will cost $4.2 million and $10.7 million respectively against the cap, the dead money on his contract drops to $5.1 million, giving the team more flexibility to release him for cap savings should his play not merit cap hits exceeding $10 million cap as he starts hitting his mid-thirties. If Albert can stay healthy and perform up to his capabilities during those first two years, the contract will be worth it for the Phins, who have plenty of cap space anyways.
Still this deal merits a mention as a big overpay considering how much it contrasted with the rest of the market for younger, healthier players.
Paul Soliai, Atlanta Falcons: five years, $33 million
Like Albert, Soliai should fill a position of need on his new team, but was badly overpaid considering his age (30) and how the market played out elsewhere. Soliai has been a beast against the run for a number of years in Miami, and he brings the versatility to contribute in both a 3-4 or 4-3, something that fits the Falcons reported desires to utilize both fronts.
However, that's a lot of money for a defensive tackle already in his thirties. Consider that the Dolphins retained Soliai's old partner in crime, 30 year old Randy Starks, for just $12 million over two years. Linval Johnson may have been overpaid a bit himself at five years, $31.5 million, but he still got less money from the Vikings than the Falcons gave to a player five years his senior. Clinton McDonald, 27 years old and fresh off a solid season for the Super Bowl champs, was re-signed for merely $12 million over four years.
However, the parallels to Albert continue with the structure of the deal. Soliai will be on the roster for the next two years at cap numbers of $5.4 and $4.4 million. However, Soliai's cap hit jumps up to $6.9 million for both 2016 and 2017, and reaches $8.4 million in 2018, when Soliai will be 34. The odds are slim to none of Soliai surviving the length of this backloaded contract.
Sam Shields, Green Bay Packers: four years, $39 million
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| via JerseyAls.com |
Is it possible that Shields does continue to impress and prove the Packers right for committing to him? Sure, absolutely. However, the depth of this year's cornerback market doesn't support panic signing a guy most people had no higher than sixth (seventh counting Revis) of available corners on the market to top six money at his position.
Think of it this way. Would you rather have Shields at $9.75 million per year or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for $7 million a year? How about Shields at that price or Alterraun Verner at $6.4 million per year? Aqib Talib getting $9.5 million a year was roundly mocked in New England, but the structure of his deal realistically makes it two years at nearly $7.5 per year, with the Broncos only needing to swallow $3 million in dead money in 2016 to avoid paying Talib $10.5 million per year over the final four years of the deal. At least Talib has demonstrated he's a legitimate top corner when healthy.
Contrast that with the structure of Shields deal. The deal pretty much locks Shields in at $5.6 million this year and $9.1 mill next year, as it will cost more to release Shields than to keep him those first two years. His number then jumps all the way up to $12.1 million in the final two years of the deal, which carries pretty substantial dead money until the final year of the deal. Basically, the Packers better hope Shields can continue to rapidly improve, because he's going to get paid like a top player for the next three years.
Zane Beadles, Jacksonville Jaguars: five years, $30 million
Beadles is a guy whose name recognition exceeds his level of play on the field. He was a high second round draft pick and got a questionable Pro Bowl nod in 2012, but metrics tend to view him as "an adequate run blocker and below average pass blocker". Not a terrible player by any means, but certainly not one deserving of $6 million a year.
Despite that, the Jaguars went ahead and made Beadles the tenth highest paid guard in the league (by yearly average). The only other guard to exceed even $20 million was Jon Asomoah, who got $22.5 over five years from Atlanta. Geoff Schwartz, considered by many to be the top guard on the market, only got $16.8 million over four years from the Giants, $2 million less per year than Beadles.
The saving grace for this deal is the structure of the contract, which contains no guaranteed money after the first two years. The Jaguars can cut him at any point after those first two years with no repercussions on their salary cap. Still, the Jaguars outbid the rest of the guard market for a player considered a step down from the likes of Schwartz or Asomoah.
Jason Hatcher, Washington Redskins: four years, $27.5 million
In a vacuum, signing a player coming off of an 11 sack season away from the Cowboys sounds like a dream come true to Redskins fans. This signing has the potential to be worth if Hatcher can hold off father time and stay productive for a few more years.
However, it's a significant gamble considering Hatcher will turn 32 in July. It's a contract that runs until he turns 35, and could become an albatross if Hatcher's play starts to decline with age.
The contract becomes more of a gamble because of it's questionable structure. The Redskins backloaded the deal with significantly higher base salaries over it's final two years, a common practice in the NFL. However, they lowered the cap numbers on those first two years (despite having money to spend) by spreading out his signing bonus amongst four years. As a result, the Skins will likely have to choose between keeping a 34 year old Hatcher in 2016 at $8.75 million against the cap or cutting him and incurring $4.5 million in dead money. It's questionable whether Hatcher will be worth that money at 34, and he'll surely get cut in 2017 when that dead money gets cut in half.
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| Oher hasn't been up to protecting "the blind side" in the NFL |
The Titans had a hole to fill at right tackle after releasing mainstay David Stewart, but the amount they overpaid Oher is laughable. Like Beadles, Oher's name recognition far exceeds his actual on-field performance. The man famous for being the subject of "The Blind Side" has never been up to snuff in the NFL at left tackle, and saw his play steadily decline even on the right side throughout his career.
Despite Oher ranking in the bottom 10 of qualifying tackles on ProFootballFocus, Tennessee made him the ninth highest paid right tackle in the league at an average of $5 million a year. The structure of the deal frontloads most of the guaranteed money, giving the team ample opportunity to escape this deal in it's final two years. If Oher continues to play like he did in his last two years with Baltimore, that will be a tempting option for the Titans.
Julius Peppers, Green Bay Packers: 3 years, $30 million
There was a time when the opportunity to sign Julius Peppers at an average of $10 million a year would have been seen as a bargain. Unfortunately those days are past, and it's probably wishful thinking to hope the Packers got that Peppers at age 34. Peppers is still a decent player, and will probably benefit from a reduced role, but it's hard to imagine Peppers being worth superstar money at ages 35 and 36.
The Packers structured the deal specifically to lower Pepper's 2013 cap hit down to $3.5 million. The bill comes in next year, when Peppers is due $12 million against the cap. Cutting him at that point will open up $7 million in savings, but also carries a $5 million dead money charge against the cap. If Peppers continues to decline (his 7.5 sacks in 2013 were his lowest total since 2007), that will be a tough pill the Pack will have to consider swallowing. Even if Peppers recalls his 2012 form (11.5 sacks), it's hard to imagine he'll be worth $12 million in 2015.
The decision was made more curious by some of the other options out there. The market for veteran DEs dried up immediately after Peppers deal. Jared Allen is still unsigned and likely to wind up getting less than Peppers, be it with the Seahawks or another mystery team, despite Allen being two years younger and more productive than Peppers in 2013. Justin Tuck, three years younger than Peppers and also more productive in 2013, only got two years and $11 million from Oakland. There were much better deals to be had for veteran pass rushers.
Austin Howard, Oakland Raiders: five years, $30 million
The Raiders had a need to improve their offensive line, but they seem to have dramatically overpaid to land the former Jets right tackle. Howard was perfectly competent as a starter with the Jets, and should be solid on the field for the Raiders. However, the Raiders are paying him like a top player, not merely a solid one, and he has yet to display any signs of being worth this kind of money.
Consider how Howard's deal stacks up to some of the other tackles signed this offseason. The Bucs got Anthony Collins, a player who excelled in pass protection last season playing left tackle, for the exact same total money. The Saints re-signed RT Zach Strief, widely considered a superior player to Howard, for $9.5 million less. The Rams arguably overpaid Rodger Saffold at five years, $31.7 million, but they at least got a player with the versatility to play everywhere from left tackle to guard for their money. The Jets got a capable replacement for Howard in Seattle's Breno Giacomini for merely $18 million over four years.
At the least the Raiders managed to be clever in how they structured this one. Howard's deal is very frontloaded, with a $8 million cap hit in 2014 that the Raiders can easily afford to swallow. With no signing bonus, Howard's deal contains no guaranteed money beyond the first year, allowing the Raiders to escape the deal if it becomes onerous in the future.
Vontae Davis, Indianapolis Colts: four years, $36 million
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| Robert Scheer/Indy Star |
A whopping $20 million of the deal is guaranteed money. However, the interesting way the Colts structured this deal means only one year of it will be particularly painful.
At a $6.25 million cap hit, Davis is practically a bargain in 2014. However, the bill comes up in a big way in 2015, with a $6 million roster bonus pushing his cap hit all the way up to $11.25 million. The first two years of the deal are entirely comprised of guaranteed money, meaning it will cost more to cut him than keep him that year. However, while the final two years of the deal continue to have high cap hits ($8.25 and $10.25 million) thanks to high base salaries, the relative lack of guaranteed money left on the deal makes it easy for the Colts to release Davis for cap savings if his performance doesn't merit top level pay.
It's a lot of money for a riskier player like Davis, and certainly an overpay compared to what Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie got from the Giants (five years, $35 million), not to mention Brent Grimes (four years, $32 million from the Dolphins) and Alterraun Verner (four years, $25.5 from Tampa). However, give the Colts credit for hedging their bets with the contract structure, enabling them to get out of this deal in two years if Davis isn't performing.
Everson Griffen, Minnesota Vikings: five years, $42.5 million
The grand pooh-bah of overpays this year. I issued a challenge back at the start of free agency for someone to surpass the stupidity of Minnesota's contract to re-sign Griffen, but so far no one has been able to answer the bell. When you look up overpay in the dictionary, there's a picture of Griffen's new deal with the Vikings.
Griffen was a solid reserve in Minnesota, playing behind Jared Allen and Brian Robinson. He has 17.5 career sacks, with a career high 8 in 2012. Minnesota didn't want to lose him, especially knowing Allen was good as gone. So, naturally they...paid him like a superstar?
Is Everson Griffen an NFL star? The Vikings are betting so, giving him a contract with $8.2 million cap hits the first four years before jumping to $9.7 million in the last year. The first two years are almost entirely guaranteed, and there's enough dead money left in year three that he'll probably stick around at least for that year too. The Vikings can reasonably get out from this deal in the final two years of it should Griffen not blossom into a star, but he'll have already pocketed $27 million for three years of play by then, not a bad haul for someone whose never been a regular NFL starter.
It seemed like Minnesota panicked and outbid themselves at the time to ensure Griffen wouldn't get a chance to leave at the time, and the way the market played out confirmed that. Compare that deal to the five years, $35 million Chicago gave Lamarr Houston, or the four years, $32 million Michael Bennett got from Seattle. Arthur Jones, a versatile starter from the 2012 champs, got $33 million over five years from Indy, $9 million less than Griffen. Justin Tuck settled for two years, $11 million in Oakland.
You know what they always say: when you can gamble big money that your solid backup is a star in the making rather than spend less to get an upgrade, you have to do it.
