A Call to Arms: Hakeem Nicks

Back-to-back losses in the AFC Championship game have led many Patriots fans to support an "all-in" approach to this offseason. "Trade for Larry Fitzgerald! Sign Eric Decker! Trade for Revis! I don't care how much it costs, our window is closing!!!1!!1!!" seems to be the prevailing sentiment.

However, back in reality, the Patriots find themselves in a difficult position with the salary cap. As things currently stand, the Patriots are only $3.9 million under the projected $126.3 million cap for 2014. They will certainly be moves coming to save some money for this year, but much of that will likely be used to address pending free agents like Aqib Talib and Julian Edelman. 

Because of this cap situation, the Patriots appear unlikely to have the kind of space to make a major splash in free agency. However, there could be some more affordable, under-the-radar targets out there that could make sense for this team to pursue. I'll be taking a look at some of the potential value signings available this offseason over the next few months. Up today: former Giants receiver Hakeem Nicks.

Name: Hakeem Nicks
Position: Wide Receiver
Team: New York Giants (5 years)
Status: Unrestricted Free Agent
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 209
2013 Stats: 56 catches, 896 yards, 0 TDs

PFF ranking: A down year for Nicks (+0.1 grade) in 2013 pushed him all the way down to ProFootballFocus' 25th ranked free agent receiver.

Fit: All that talk about going out and getting a big, playmaking receiver for Brady? That would be fulfilled immediately by signing Nicks, whose leaping ability and long arms help him to play even bigger than his listed measurables.

Injuries and ineffectiveness rendered the Patriots passing game somewhat toothless at times in 2013. Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins flashed their potential, but neither were up to the task yet of being key, relied-upon cogs in the offense. Danny Amendola admirably gutted through a painful groin injury, but injuries simply are part of the story with him at this point. Julian Edelman often carried the passing game on his diminutive shoulders, but it's unclear whether the unrestricted free agent will be back in 2014.

By the time this team got to the AFC Championship game, it's passing attack had been reduced to almost exclusively short passes to even shorter receivers. With no one posing a real deep threat to Denver, the Broncos defense was able to sit on those short routes, punishing Brady's receivers and limiting their crucial yards after the catch. New England's offense was almost completely stymied as a result, managing only 16 points (13 of those coming in the fourth quarter with the game already out of reach) in a 26-16 loss that never felt as close as it's final score.

A healthy, motivated Nicks would represent the best outside receiver Tom Brady has had since Randy Moss was a Patriot. Nicks is a big, physical receiver with enough speed to beat defenders for big gains down the field. His leaping ability and massive catch radius (courtesy of his NBA-esque long arms) enable him to make contested catches down the field, often despite tight coverage. Nick's game represents a bit of a departure from the high-percentage, short passing attack employed by the Pats in recent years, but his penchant for big plays (16 yards per catch in 2013) and ability to manufacture offense despite tight coverage would bring a missing dynamic to the Patriots offense.

By bringing in Nicks, the Patriots would be gambling that the 26 year old receiver would be reinvigorated by a change of scenery and a new, hall-of-fame quarterback. Nicks seemed poised for a strong, bounce-back year after injuries hampered him through-out 2012, but a perfect storm of more injuries, poor pass protection and a bad season by Eli Manning combined to limit his production in 2013.

Nicks is certainly not blameless either. There were questions about the receiver's focus as New York's season began to go south last year, with drops occasionally becoming an issue. Also, while most believe his reported fines for tardiness weren't a big deal (according to league sources, "everyone is late" at some point in Tom Coughlin's strict program), they certainly didn't endear him to the Giants.

However, Patriots fans need no reminder of what a healthy, motivated Nicks can do. The receiver killed the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI, catching 10 balls for 109 yards. This performance capped off a monster four-game postseason run that saw Nicks catch 28 balls for 444 yards and 4 touchdowns. If you need more convincing, take a look at the highlights from that year. Nicks has his warts (in fact, those are the only reason he may be available in the first place), but at his best he is a top-end playmaking talent. If the Patriots have the opportunity to add a player of that caliber on affordable deal, it could be a boon for their struggling offense.


Highlight video's music contains NSFW language.
 
Likelihood: Normally, a former first round pick with two 1,000 yard seasons and key contributions to a Super Bowl championship doesn't fit the billing of a "value" signing. However, Nicks hits free agency with his value free-falling after two difficult seasons, opening up the slight possibility of signing with New England.

Whether the Patriots even become an option for Nicks will be determined by how the free agent market develops for him. The Patriots cap situation will make it extremely difficult for the Pats to offer Nicks close to what he wants in terms of guaranteed money and contract length. However, if an offer to Nicks liking doesn't materialize, he could opt for a short-term, "prove it" type of deal. This would allow Nicks a change to rehab his value and hit the market again next year with a better chance at a payday, while giving his new team a chance to acquire a talented player at a bargain cost.

If it does come down to that, the Patriots could emerge as a sneakily intriguing option for Nicks. The opportunity to play with Tom Brady, one of the best quarterbacks of all time, certainly has to appeal to any receiver, especially one who just saw his quarterback throw a league high 27 interceptions. The Patriots are also a highly-visible team, offering Nicks plenty of chances to showcase his talent to the rest of the league. Finally, the Patriots being a perennial contender has to appeal to a free agent, especially one looking to bring his league-wide value back up.

Unfortunately, the biggest red flag on Nicks is an uncontrollable one that the Patriots have far too much experience with recently: injuries. Nicks' two year statistical decline has coincided with a broken foot and a knee injury (2012) and an abdominal injury and high ankle sprain (2013). Would the Patriots, already counting on contributions from the injury-prone Shane Vereen, Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski, be entirely scared off by Nicks' injuries? Or would they roll the dice on a short-term deal, hoping that Nicks is merely coming off of an extremely unlucky two-year run.

I personally would love to see the Pats take a chance on Nicks if the price is right. While I am more optimistic than most about the strides Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins and Josh Boyce could make in year two, Nicks could give the Patriots an explosive dynamic that they simply haven't had at receiver since Randy Moss. Bringing in a player of that caliber seems worth the risk to me, especially if the risks are minimized by the shorter terms of his contract.

Despite this, my gut feeling is that adding Nicks is a long-shot. Even if the market plays out in the Patriots favor, leading Nicks to look for a one-year deal and a chance to hit the market again next year, he will probably be able to find a better deal than what the cash-strapped Patriots can offer. Perhaps the allure of Brady and Belichick can overcome this, but it seems unlikely at this point. However, the dream of Brady and Nicks teaming up, developing great chemistry, and making the Patriots offense explosive once again is one that I won't give up until Nicks has officially signed with another team.