AFC Championship Game Scouting Report: Denver Broncos
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| Dustin Bradford/ Getty Images |
When the Patriots have the ball:
It will be very interesting to see how the Patriots attack this matchup. On the one hand, the Patriots have had massive success with a run heavy game plan in recent weeks, rushing over 40 times in each of their last two games. However, running against Denver means testing the strength of their defense (a stout defensive front), rather than attacking a secondary that ranked 27th in the NFL.
My take is that the Patriots as currently constructed (or, more accurately, what's left of them) are far more effective when they can establish the run. Not only does running the ball help them stay out of drive-killing third-and-longs, which are difficult for this offense sans Gronk, but it may be the Patriots most effective means of gaining yards. The one thing they've done consistently all season long is run the ball on offense, and they come in with LeGarrette Blount as hot as an offensive player can be.
Of course, a lot of what the Patriots do will be a reaction to how Denver tries to defend them. Will Jack Del Rio and his defense load up the box, essentially taking the run away and daring Tom Brady to beat them? All the X's and O's surrounding this Patriots team say that's the logical strategy, but daring Brady to beat you with a Super Bowl berth on the line will take some massive cojones.
If the Broncos do pack the box, the Patriots will be faced with an dilemma: continue to pound the run against a front loaded up to stop it, or attack the mismatches created by that strategy in the secondary? In many ways, it's a reversal of the Patriots strategy against these Broncos back in November, when the Patriots used lighter nickel looks with two deep safeties to entice Peyton Manning into running the ball rather than throwing it.
If the Patriots do decide to throw it in those situations, there should be mismatches to attack. With starting corner Chris Harris out with a torn ACL, everyone in the Denver secondary is bumped up a notch on the depth chart. That means, if last week was any indication, that Dominique Rodger-Cromartie will be the top cornerback, with Champ Bailey manning the slot and a combination of Quentin Jammer and Tony Carter filling the other spot.
Much of how the Patriots try to attack will likely depend on how the Broncos utilize Rodgers-Cromartie. He's certainly Denver's top cornerback with Harris out, but at 6'2" he's built to contend with bigger receivers outside the numbers, not shifty little slot guys like Julian Edelman. The Broncos could try to use Rodgers-Cromartie to take Minitron away from Tom Brady, but it seems unlikely considering Edelman does have the short area quickness to escape from his press coverage. It seems more likely that he gets the Patriots outside receiver, be it Kenbrell Thompkins or Aaron Dobson (both are listed as questionable, but have practiced this week).
I'd expect Bailey to get the Edelman assignment and Brady to feel comfortable testing that matchup. At 35, Bailey has lost a step, and while he uses his instincts well to compensate, he simply isn't the shutdown performer anymore that he was during the prime of his Hall of Fame career. At this point in their respective careers, Edelman against Bailey is a mismatch in the Patriots favor.
This would likely leave on of Jammer or Carter covering Danny Amendola, which becomes a big mismatch for Tom Brady to attack. Jammer was forced into duty last week when Harris went down and was mercilessly picked on by former teammate Philip Rivers for the rest of the game. For some reason, Denver allowed Jammer to cover Keenan Allen one-on-one in Harris' absence, with the rookie receiver catching 5 balls for 123 yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter against Jammer, fueling a furious San Diego comeback attempt.
Amendola isn't on Allen's level as a receiver, but he has been solid when called upon, including several nice catches last week against the Colts. If Jammer or Carter are in coverage against Amendola, it's another matchup that favors the Patriots. Admit it, can you think of a better storyline than Danny Amendola stepping up with a huge game against Wes Welker's Broncos to propel the Patriots to the Super Bowl?
Another forgotten weapon in the Patriots offense who could have a big day Sunday is Shane Vereen. Vereen hasn't had as big of a role recently with the Patriots emphasizing a powerful, downhill running attack, but the third year back is still a dynamic mismatch in the passing game. Denver seems better suited, at least on paper, to deal with Vereen thanks to their speedy linebackers, but Vereen managed a solid 8 catches for 60 yards against them earlier in the season. Make no mistake, Vereen should (and will) be a big part of the game plan should the Patriots try to throw a little more than in past weeks.
The threat of the LeGarrette Blount/Stevan Ridley tag team should pay major dividends this week by setting up play action. The Broncos, already a team susceptible to play action, surely have had it drilled in their heads to stop the run considering the Pats have 89 rushing attempts in their last two games. Play action helped open things up a little bit last week for a vertically challenge Patriots passing attack, notably springing Amendola wide open on a 50+ yard play. The opportunities should be there again for the Pats this week.
However, all of this will be for naught if the offensive line can't win the line of scrimmage. Denver's defensive front is no joke, as they have a deep group loaded with the kind of talented, physical linemen that occasionally give the Patriots issues. They jumped all over the Chargers early last week, stuffing the run and setting the tone of the game by sacking Rivers twice on the Chargers first possession. With all the injury based limitations on this Patriots offense, they simply cannot afford a week in once the line gets outplayed up front.
When the Broncos have the ball:
On this side of the ball, the question becomes whether history will repeat itself. Back in November, the Patriots spent the vast majority of the game in their nickel defense, with both safeties deep to defend against big plays in the passing game. Essentially, they were enticing Peyton Manning to audible into running plays, taking the game out of his hands. Perhaps influenced by his struggles throwing in the swirling winds of Gillette Stadium, Manning took the bait, as the Broncos ran 48 times while only throwing 36 passes.
How well that defensive strategy truly "worked" is up for debate. Yes, anyone would rather risk Knowshon Moreno beating them than Peyton Manning, any day of the week. However, giving up 280 rushing yards, 224 of those by Moreno, is not a blueprint for repeated success. It's difficult to credit that for the win, which really was caused by a bad turnover by Denver's special teams late in overtime.
With that said, the Broncos personnel forces a defense to get as many adept cover guys on the field as possible, leaving said defense naturally lighter and more vulnerable to the run. Considering the depth and talent the Broncos have at receiver, it still will behoove the Pats to force Denver to turn more to it's running game. At the very least, a run-heavy Denver offense will result in longer possessions, limiting their total possessions (and opportunities to pile up points) in the process.
Whether they can do a better job of actually slowing down Denver's backs will be another issue altogether, although the emergence of Sealver Siliga and improved play from Dont'a Hightower inspires some hope on that front. Still, it will be a challenge to stop this Denver running game from the nickel, particularly with Montee Ball rushing well now as a nice complement to Moreno.
Even if Manning does hand it off a lot on Sunday, expect him to try and make more of an impact through the air than he did back in November. The wind, which was arguably the Patriots MVP in that November Foxborough win, is not expected to make an impact on Sunday's game. Manning will also have tight end Julius Thomas back in this game, a matchup nightmare who has become a key part of this Denver passing attack.
The Patriots also come into this game a lot healthier and better equipped to contend with the Broncos all-star receivers. Last November's game saw Aqib Talib playing noticeably hurt (less than a week after being told to "ice up son" by Steve Smith, Alfonzo Dennard leave midway through the second quarter after his lingering knee injury flared up, Kyle Arrington still playing through a groin problem and safety Steve Gregory out with a broken thumb. All four of these guys are much healthier now, particularly Talib and Dennard, who looked rejuvenated last week from the time of during the bye. These guys, along with Devin McCourty and Logan Ryan, give the Patriots more cover guys than most teams to throw at Denver.
The Patriots also have a newfound potential counter to Julius Thomas; linebacker Jamie Collins. Collins has really emerged as a playmaker in the final month or so of the season (a stretch that actually started with a strong performance against Denver) and flashed his considerable athleticism last week in covering Colts TE Coby Fleener. Thomas is a different animal than Fleener, but Collins gives the Patriots an athletic option in coverage that they didn't have before against pass catching tight ends. He'll surely have help, but expect Collins to get the bulk of the work against Thomas.
As for the other Thomas, expect Talib to once again take the assignment of Denver's best receiver. Talib is by far the Patriots best option against the size and explosiveness (6'3", 229) of Demaryius Thomas, and he fought admirably through injury earlier in the season to hold Thomas to only 4 catches and 41 yards with a touchdown. If Talib can play like the shutdown guy he was prior to getting hurt, it will be a boon for the Patriots defense, as Thomas is the best of Denver's many explosive weapons.
If the past is any indication, Kyle Arrington will get the assignment of covering Wes Welker in the slot. Arrington did an exceptional job in this role back in Week 12, holding Welker to 4 catches for 31 yards. Welker seemed a little off last week in his first game back, catching 6 balls for only 38 yards and a touchdown while dropping another touchdown that could have saved Denver a lot of drama. I would expect the Broncos to test this matchup a bit more this week, especially playing in better conditions.
Finally, that leaves Alfonzo Dennard and Logan Ryan available to contend with Eric Decker and occasionally Andre Caldwell. Decker sometimes becomes a forgotten man in Denver thanks to all the other targets around him, but he's had an excellent season himself and can certainly hurt you if neglected in coverage.
As I wrote earlier this week, Denver's passing game is largely built around short passes, allowing Manning to quickly get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Expect the Patriots to counter this with physical, press-man coverage at the line, hopefully disrupting the timing of the Denver offense. It's also imperative for the Patriots to be alert for play action, which is an effective part of Denver's attack.
Special Teams:
With good conditions and the thin altitude of Invesco Field, don't expect either kick returner to make much impact on the game. I'll be surprised if either Matt Prater or Stephen Gostkowski have a kick returned on Sunday, barring penalties.
The punt return game could be a different story. With no alternative signed at punter, the Patriots seem confident that Ryan Allen will be good to go on Sunday. Allen should be fine despite his injured shoulder, provided that he doesn't have to test it by fielding another snap 10 feet over his head. Long snapper Danny Aiken was good all year barring that one bad snap against the Colts; he'll need to be on point on Sunday.
On the other side of the field, Britton Colquitt was fine punting this year, but the Denver coverage teams did allow opponents nearly 10 yards per punt return. There could be some opportunities there for Julian Edelman to pick up some hidden yardage and give the Patriots good field position.
Coaching:
This is probably the biggest mismatch in the Patriots favor. John Fox is certainly a capable head coach, Jack Del Rio is an accomplished defensive coordinator and Peyton Manning is arguably one of the better offensive coordinators of all time. Bill Belichick has a well-established history of success against all three of them. It won't necessarily be a surprise if the Patriots lose, but it will be stunning if they get out-coached.
Intangibles:
Is there really a need to go over all the storylines for this one? Manning against Brady, possibly for the last time, with a berth in the Super Bowl on the line. Brady can pretty much slam the door on any debate between the two of them with a win and another Super Bowl appearance, particularly considering the disparity between the weapons each quarterback has, while a Denver win will pull Manning back to .500 against Brady and the Pats in the playoffs. Hell, all the Wes Welker storylines that normally would dominate this game are an afterthought this week.
One factor that could actually affect the game is playing in Denver. Not because of the weather, which is expected to be a relatively balmy high 50s and sunny, but because of the infamous altitude at Mile High. To adjust to the altitude, the Patriots will be flying out to Denver today, giving them a little extra time to get accustomed to the conditions.
