Game winning drives: Are the Patriots as good as we think? Looking at all six of them this year


In his weekly Wednesday press conference earlier this week, Tom Brady talked about the Patriots no huddle offense.

It was a big story last year, as a Greg Bedard column in the Boston Globe following the team's victory over the Denver Broncos detailed the team's new offense. That is, the one word, turbo no huddle.

The Patriots were running more plays on offense than anyone else, and they were doing it at lightning speed.

This year, that hasn't been the case.

Nick Underhill, MassLive.com
"We haven't really snapped it quick all year," quarterback Tom Brady said. "Our team is pretty different now than it was at that point."

They are working with a whole lot of new pieces on offense. So, a lot of what made the offense great last year has gone out the window due to the personnel changes. That doesn't mean that Brady doesn't wish they used it more.



It might be a little late to go back to that one word no huddle at this point in the season. The rookie receivers have struggled enough at times this year. Still, that success in years past will lead some to believe that the Pats should move back to going no huddle near full-time. Underhill however points out in this must-read piece that the difference might not really be that drastic.

The general consensus among fans and observers has been that the Patriots execute best when things are sped up, and there are plenty of statistics that show New England has been at its best late in games. But the truth is, over the course of the season, Brady hasn't been any better in no-huddle sets than he is with things slowed down.

Overall, Brady has completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 4,049 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He's attempted 62 passes out of hurry-up sets, completing 37 (59.7 percent) for 414 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Still, as Underhill points out, the perception has seemed to be clear that when backed against a wall at the end of games, the Pats are at their best.

Is that perception flawed though?

Taking a look at every single game-ending drive this season. Brady has attempted 45 passes on game ending drives this season, completing 24 for them (53.3%). That's obviously below both his season percentage and his average completion percentage in the hurry up offense. The plays charted here also don't include any desperate heaves at the endzone in a hail mary situation.

In the six drives, the Patriots are an even .500 at 3-3. They have ended in a game winning field goal once, touchdown twice and an interception three times.

Below are every game ending drive the Patriots have had this season. The criteria for these is a do or die situation, where the Patriots need to score or lose the game and the drive ends with less than a minute remaining in the game.

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Game Ending Drive #1

WIN - Week 1 - @ Buffalo Bills - Final score: NE 23, BUF 21

The Situation: After an early lead, the Patriots trailed with four and a half minutes to go in the fourth quarter, 21-20. A 44 yard punt returned by Julian Edelman for two yards gave the Patriots the ball at their own 34 yard line.

The Drive: The ideal outcome in this situation would be to drive down and score while also leaving virtually no time left on the clock for the Bills to respond. As it happens, the Patriots did exactly that. Relying exclusively on Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen (no one else touched the ball on this drive) the Pats were able to get all the way to the Buffalo 15.

The pass to run ratio on this drive was 7 to 2 (not counting two rushes by Tom Brady at the end to kill the clock and center the ball). Every game winning drive needs a couple of miracles, and both Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola delivered. Vereen virtually sealed the game with a 15 yard run to the Buffalo 14 yard line with just a minute and eight seconds remaining.

It was Amendola who kept the drive alive though, converting both third down conversions the Patriots faced on the drive. Brady did his part as well, as he completed every single pass attempt on the drive.

The Result: A game winning field goal from Stephen Gostowski with just nine seconds remaining sealed this one.

Game Ending Drive #2

LOSS - Week 5 - @ Cincinnati Bengals - Final score: CIN 13, NE 6

The Situation: The Patriots never led in this defensive battle as they struggled to move the ball virtually all game. Still, they had a chance to win it in the end. Conditions were admittedly less than ideal though. Heavy rains began to pour down as the Patriots fielded the ball at their own 35 yard line, trailing 13-6 with 1:48 remaining and needing a touchdown to win the game.

The Drive: Brady and the Pats weren't quite as sharp on this drive. Partly due to the weather, partly due to some costly drops by receivers. Brady put the ball in the air six times on this drive, as the team only ran once (a 12 yard gain by Brandon Bolden). Brady completed just one pass, yet the team was still able to move all the way to the Cincinnati 27 yard line.

How so? The aforementioned Brandon Bolden run helped, but so did two costly penalties on the Bengals. With the Pats facing fourth and four on their first set of downs, Bengals' Chris Crocker jumped offsides, giving the team life. Later, with the Patriots looking at 2nd and 10 from the Bengals 42, Cincy's Wallace Gilberry was flagged for roughing the passer. The Bengals were able to survive however as the very next play...

The Result: ...Brady threw an interception to Adam Jones with 26 seconds remaining. It was a play that broke Brady's active touchdown streak and left the team thinking about what could've been. As we saw in the Buffalo drive, some plays need to be made on the way to a score to build some rhythm and momentum. That's not something the team had on this drive or all day.

Game Ending Drive #3

WIN - Week 6 - vs New Orleans Saints - Final score: NE 30, NO 27

The Situation: A rare situation in the NFL, especially against one of the league's most potent offenses, the Patriots actually got three cracks at a game winning drive in the final three and a half minutes of the game. This was largely thanks to a couple key plays from their defense, as detailed here. As the cliche goes, the third time was a charm.

The Patriots received the ball at their own 30 yard line, trailing 27-23, needing a touchdown and with no timeouts. We all remember this drive well.

The Drive: It started off about as well as possible, with a 23 yard dart to Julian Edelman over the middle. Brady attempted seven passes on this drive as the team did not run the ball once. Obviously that was understandable though given the time on the clock. Brady completed his first three passes on the drive, and was 5/7 overall. Aside from the final play, an Austin Collie completion that converted a fourth down may have been the most crucial play of the drive.

The Result: Brady spiked the ball after Collie's fourth down conversion and on the very next play threw the famous 17 yard touchdown pass to Kenbrell Thompkins for the win. This drive was an example of, like the Buffalo game, where a few plays can really jolt the team and build a rhythm on a drive.

"I would say that catch to Julian [Edelman] on the first play of that series was as big a play as we’ve had all season," Tom Brady told WEEI. "Because without that play, you’re really in the hole. That’s a really clutch play by Julian to make that."

Game Ending Drive #4

LOSS - Week 11 - @ Carolina Panthers - Final score: CAR 24, NE 20

The Situation: The Patriots had been relatively successful all game against one of the league's best defenses in Carolina. But once again they were faced with the daunting task of driving all the way to the opponent's end zone for a game winning touchdown. The Pats received the ball at their own 20, their worst starting field position of any game ending drive to that point, with just 59 seconds remaining but all of their timeouts. They trailed 24-20.

The Drive: The Patriots again did not run once on this drive, putting it in the air 11 times, the highest amount of the season to that point. Brady was just 4 of 11 on this drive as he spread the ball around, targeting five different receivers. The Patriots were helped out by a defensive pass interference penalty on Carolina's Melvin White on a 3rd and 10, which gave them the ball at the Carolina 36 with just 10 seconds remaining. The Pats moved as close as Carolina's 18 yard line, before the game was sealed with..

The Result: ...a Robert Lester interception in the endzone. This was the very controversial play where a flag was thrown for a seemingly obvious pass interference on Rob Gronkowski in the end zone. Instead, the flag was picked up without explanation and the game was over. The debate over the officials can be had until the end of time, but this drive seemed to be failed from the start.

Like the other unsuccessful game winning drive, this one started off poorly. Three straight incompletions led to fourth and 10. However, Rob Gronkowski was able to pull the team out of a jam, hauling in a Brady pass for 23 yards. 11 yard completions to both Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola also helped pick up first downs but otherwise Brady was not sharp on this drive and ultimately the team payed for it.

Game Ending Drive #5

WIN - Week 14 - vs Cleveland Browns - Final score: NE 27, CLE 26

The Situation: It's hard to call this one a drive at all, as it only consisted of three plays. Still, if it weren't for a key penalty, it would have very well lasted longer. The Patriots received the ball at the Cleveland 40 yard line after scoring a touchdown on their previous possession and then recovering an onside kick. An unnecessary roughness penalty for a hit on a defenseless receiver was called on the Patriots touchdown as well, which set New England up with great field position after the recovery. They had not been playing well all day, but had a chance for the winning touchdown with exactly 1 minute remaining and no timeouts, trailing 26-21.

The Drive: Brady again started off with a completion on this one, finding Danny Amendola for a 10 yard gain. He then immediately attempted a deep pass to Josh Boyce and Browns corner Leon McFadden was flagged on a questionable pass interference call. The foul occurred in the end zone, giving the Pats the ball at the one yard line and...

The Result: Tom Brady immediately found Danny Amendola for the score. It wasn't necessarily game ending though, as Cleveland ended up with 35 seconds to drive for a 58 yard field goal try. Still, it was the game deciding score in a do or die situation, and ended well within the final minute. Brady was 2/2 on the drive, both to Danny Amendola.

Game Ending Drive #6

LOSS - Week 15 - @ Miami Dolphins - Final score: MIA 24, NE 20

The Situation: Last week against Miami, the Patriots found themselves in a pretty similar situation as the Carolina game. The score was the same, the defense had just given up the go-ahead score, and the Patriots now had to drive down the field for a game winning touchdown on the road. Unfortunately, for the Patriots the result was nearly identical.

The Pats received the ball on their own 20, just like in Carolina, and had 1:15 left and all of their timeouts.

The Drive: Brady attempted 12 passes on this drive, setting a season high on game ending drives. He wasn't too sharp either, as he completed only 5 of the 12. Brady looked mainly to Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola on this drive, as Amendola picked up three first downs himself. Perhaps seeing Amendola as reliable on the possession, Brady targeted him again on first and 10 from the Miami 19 with 27 seconds remaining. Brady lofted a perfect pass to Amendola that would've been the game winning touchdown but Amendola was unable to hang on amid some great coverage from Dolphins safety Michael Thomas.

Off sides on Cameron wake on the next play gave the Pats the ball at Miami's 14 with 16 seconds left. Brady threw two straight incompletions before...

The Result: ...he was picked off by Thomas in the endzone on fourth down to seal the game. It was quite similar, again, to that Carolina game as another controversial no-call was made. Pats fans would argue that tight end Michael Hoomanwanui was interfered with in the end zone on the previous play, but the flag wasn't thrown. Still, Brady failed to build any sort of rhythm on the drive, and again struggled to find the end zone.

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As you would expect, the team finds success at a higher rate at the end of games at home more than on the road. All three of their game ending drives that ended in losses have been on the road.

One common trend in those losses is that Brady tends to be off from the start of the drive. As a rule of thumb, if the first few passes of the drive are incompletions, the likelihood that the drive will end with a win becomes low.

When there are some big plays on the drive though (like Edelman's 23 yard catch against the Saints, or Amendola's clutch third down conversion against the Bills) the Patriots have been able to build on that momentum and come away with the win.

The Pats could easily be looking at another game ending drive tomorrow against the Baltimore Ravens as five of the last eight games between the two teams have been decided by six points or less.

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