AFC Fear Index: Cincinnati Bengals
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Season results: 11-5, First Place in the AFC North
Ranks: Offense: 6th, Defense: 5th
Reasons to fear: In one word: balance. The Bengals are arguably the most well-rounded team in the AFC field. Their offense boasts top threat AJ Green, a bevy of talented secondary targets (Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Andrew Hawkins), two athletic tight ends in Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham (although both are questionable for this weekend's game), one of the league's best offensive lines, and a solid 1-2 punch at running back from the steady Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis and the explosive Gio Benard. Simply put, that's a lot of guys to defend. Defensively, they've withstood the losses of two studs (Geno Atkins and Leon Hall) to continue to be one of the toughest units in the league. Their defensive line gets after the passer, the linebackers fly around the field to shut down the run and the secondary has been opportunistic.
Matchup concerns:
- Gio Bernard vs Patriots linebackers: It's no secret the Patriots linebackers struggle in coverage. Bill Belichick has always favored big, physical, run-stuffing linebackers, but the drawback to playing thumpers like Brandon Spikes and Donta' Hightower is that the big guys tend to be a little slower in coverage. Bernard has the kind of "can't miss" explosiveness to turn any mundane play into a big gainer, and the Bengals like to get him the ball in open space in the passing game. The answer would seem to be Jamie Collins, who has added some desperately needed speed to the Patriots linebackers, but the Pats might need Collins to fend with the Bengals athleticism at tight end.
- Bengals D-line vs Patriots O-line: The Bengals depth on their defensive line has really shown in the absence of Geno Atkins. Atkins may have been their best player, but the Bengals defensive line rotation goes six deep. The Bengals rank 10th in the league with 43 sacks, despite no one having more than 7.5 (Carlos Dunlap and Wallace Gilberry), thanks to having 7 players with at least 3 sacks (8 if you count Atkins, who collected 6 of them before going down with an ACL injury). Their pass rush was a big part of Cincinnati's Week 5 win over the Pats, as Tom Brady never got a chance to get comfortable in the 13-6 loss. The Bengals have also shut down the run, allowing just 96 yards a game in 2013. Without Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are more reliant than ever on their running game to provide balance for a limited downfield passing offense. If the Bengals can shut down the Patriots running game, it could be a long day for Brady and co. Lets hope Logan Mankins has ditched his walking boot by the time this game rolls around.
- AJ Green vs Aqib Talib: No one needed this first round bye more than the Patriots secondary, who have been the walking wounded for much of the season's second half. Aqib Talib's hip, Alfonzo Dennard's knee and Kyle Arrington's groin will all get some badly needed R&R before hitting the field again. They'll need it if they do in fact draw the Bengals, who have one of the game's top receivers in Green. Talib largely "won" their first matchup, holding the Pro Bowler to 5 catches for 61 yards during his early season stretch that had him as a legitimate candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. Of course, Talib would injure his hip the very next week against the Saints, an injury that noticeably hobbled him at times during the second half of the season. The Patriots will need Talib to be at his absolute best against Green, who can make even the league's best corners look bad. Take away Green and you take away a big part of Cincinnati's offense.
- Dalton takes the road: The Bengals go as their quarterback, Andy Dalton, goes, and Dalton has had his struggles on the road. At home, where the Bengals are 8-0, Dalton's numbers are Pro Bowl worthy: 63.5% passing, 20 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. On the road, where the Bengals are 3-5, those numbers drop to a Sanchez-esque 60.6%, 13 touchdowns and 11 picks. Part of this is simply indicative of Dalton's Jekyl and Hyde nature; the Red Rocket has six games with a QB rating over 100 and five with a rating under 65. Turnovers have been Dalton's downfall; his 20 interceptions have to be cause for concern for Cincinnati fans. Furthermore, the Patriots would be hosting this hypothetical matchup in Gillette Stadium, where they are 8-0. There's always the chance that Dalton busts up this narrative and has a big game on the road, but he's earned his reputation for inconsistency.
- Marvin Lewis vs Bill Belichick: Is there a more underwhelming coach in the field than Marvin Lewis? In his 11th season, Lewis is the second-longest tenured coach in the league, trailing only Bill Belichick. In that time, Lewis is 90-85-1, good for a .514 winning percentage. This will be his fifth playoff appearance, where his Bengals have gone one-and-done every time. During that time, Lewis has earned a reputation for bungling in game decisions such as challenges and time outs. Don't get me wrong, there are worse coaches in the NFL (I'm looking at you, Jason Garrett), but Belichick vs. Lewis is a huge advantage for the Patriots. Of course, if this matchup comes to fruition, it will mean the Bengals have won their first playoff game in 23 years, so perhaps that will be a big momentum boost for Cincinnati. Still, it's hard not to be confident with the Hoodie on our side.
Likelihood of matchup: High. The Bengals will host the San Diego Chargers, who needed to win 5 of their last 6 games to sneak into the playoffs at 8-8. By the way, their one loss during that span was a 17-10 decision to the Bengals. While the Chargers certainly aren't a pushover, they do have one of the bottom 10 defenses in the league. Furthermore, the Bengals (and particularly Andy Dalton) are a different animal at home, where they haven't lost this year and have outscored opponents by a whopping 18.87 points per game. As the highest seed playing on Wild Card weekend, a Cinci win will guarantee a divisional round matchup the following week in Foxboro. They'll certainly be favored to do so.
Fear Rating: 7.5/10
It's admittedly hard to be scared of a franchise nicknamed "The Bungles", but Cincinnati absolutely has the talent to come into Foxboro and steal one from the Patriots. They've already beaten the Pats, albeit at home, and have the kind of physical, relentless defense that has historically given the Patriots major problems. Don't overlook this team.
