New England Patriots on Paper: A mugging in Foxborough
What's the best way to keep the Denver Broncos from scoring a gazillion points?
Well there's the Ace Ventura angle, kidnapping quarterback Peyton Manning and their spastic mascot, Miles, holding them hostage until the game with the New England Patriots is over - or the Patriots could simply stop the run and at the same time take away Manning's quick-read patterns and force him to go with the ball where he is least comfortable.
Manning gets the ball out of his hand to his quick-read faster than anyone in the National Football League, and the response that most teams have to his game is to throw nickle and dime defenses at him that are designed to protect against anything going over the top for a big play...
...but Manning isn't that guy any longer. The accuracy and velocity on his deep ball went bye-bye sometime in the last couple of years, so the Broncos have set up an offense for him that can run the football effectively enough that the play action freezes the slot corner and linebackers just long enough for them to gain instant separation.
Eighty percent of Manning's passes travel less than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, but his receivers gain such separation and Manning gets the ball out so quickly that the yards after the catch make up much of the yardage total, and former Patriot Wes Welker is an integral part of that along with speedy wideout Demaryius Thomas - and Eric Decker. And former basketball player-turned tight end Julius Thomas...
...but the Patriots can't just throw a dime defense at them and dare them to run the ball - as some have suggested - because the Broncos can play it that way, too.
Knowshon Moreno has become a dual threat in the Manning-led offense, running mostly right up the gut for four yards per carry but also curling out into the pattern to the tune of 37 catches for nine yards per reception - which means that at any given time, Manning can split three wide with an excellent pass catching tight end covering the weak side and an accomplished receiving running back curling out of the backfield - all capable of moving the sticks.
Which is why many teams come at the Broncos' offense with a dime package, and we may see some of that against Denver from the Patriots on Sunday night, but Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia would be prudent to play basic, fundamental football - stop the run, limit the yards after the catch on the underneath stuff and force Manning into third and long situations which will force him to the intermediate routes - and do it with a nickle base.
In other words, the Patriots are going to have to play physical, smashmouth defense at the first point of contact - or an old-school mugging, as it were.
Because if Manning's short game is limited and his running game rendered ineffective, he will be forced to try and go over the top on 3rd and long, a scenario that actually favors the Patriots, even with a banged up secondary - and even with Demaryius Thomas and his 4.38 speed in the pattern.
The common perception that many in the media have built for the Broncos is that they are an unstoppable juggernaut, a relentless scoring machine - and while they do lead the league in points per game, there is another reason why they can score so many points.
Because their passing game is predicated on yards after the catch, and also because Manning is so good at putting his receivers in excellent position to gain maximum post-catch yardage, the Broncos can move up and down the field very quickly as evidenced by their ridiculous average time of possession of 2:18 per series, which is the lowest number by far in the NFL...
...and with their defense sporting nearly the same average in length of possession allowed, Denver is averaging 13 possessions a game, which means that they have scored on nearly half of their possessions this season - although this number is a bit deceiving.
The Broncos came out of the gate in the 2013 season on fire, averaging 46 points per game, mostly against the abysmal NFC East opponents, also beating up on the Ravens and Raiders in the first five games of the season - scoring on 56% of their possessions...
...but in the past five games, they are averaging two touchdowns less per game and scoring on "just" 37% of their possessions while beating the likes of Jacksonville, Washington and San Diego and Kansas City, but losing to Indianapolis.
What all of this means is that the Broncos' offense has come back to earth a bit as teams have figured out ways to make them an all or nothing entity, meaning that either they score quickly or they give the ball back quickly - they do not feature long, clock-killing drives - but that is exactly what New England needs them to do.
But forcing this kind of scenario requires some creativity on the part of the New England coaching staff.
In employing a nickle defense instead of an all-out dime, the Patriots can feature a variation of a Cover-2, wherein the corners play up on the line and engage the receivers to try and disrupt the timing of their routes while two linebackers patrol the middle of the field and fill quickly both in run support and as a physical presence on crossing routes...
...and the safeties split the field and support on the deep zones. The safeties are key in this scenario, particularly if Aqib Talib is able to play and is anything near 100%, because as a big corner with good speed, Talib can handle Thomas on the outside and that would free up free safety - and former cornerback - Devin McCourty to align himself in coverage opposite Talib while Steve Gregory and rookie Duron Harmon handle the back end.
If Kyle Arrington is able to go with his groin issue resolved, he would get Welker underneath with linebacker support and, if not, Rookie Logan Ryan could compete as well - and we could even see a defensive end drop back into coverage and try to limit the tight end play.
Whichever way Belichick decides to attack this offense, the idea is to get full value out of the five-yard buffer wherein a defender is allowed contact with a receiver and slow down his release, taking away the timing of Manning's quick read routes and giving the Patriots' defensive line that extra second to try and get to Manning...
...which has been pretty tough for any teams' pass rush to do, as Manning has been sacked just 13 times on the season. Much of that has to do with the quick-read throws, but his offensive line has been excellent as well - so the goal for Chandler Jones, Chris Jones and Rob Ninkovich could be gap responsibility and penetration, chipping receivers coming off the line and sustaining gaps for rouge blitzing linebackers and corners.
But, of course, if they can somehow get to Manning themselves, that could completely change the entire philosophy.
Regardless, with an offense as proficient as the Broncos are bringing to Foxborough, and with as banged up as the secondary is, the Patriots can't afford to set back in a three-deep zone and allow the Broncos to move up and down the field quickly - they must force the issue, make Denver sustain long, time-consuming drives to get their points which in turn will limit the number of times they get the ball.
Even if New England is able to eliminate only three possessions from the Broncos' average of 13 per game - and given that the Patriots are right around the league average in scoring possessions allowed - they could conceivably hold the Broncos to four scores on the day...
...and with the Patriots' red zone defense being one of the best in the NFL - and their offense being not too shabby themselves - this scenario could lead to a resounding victory.
Well there's the Ace Ventura angle, kidnapping quarterback Peyton Manning and their spastic mascot, Miles, holding them hostage until the game with the New England Patriots is over - or the Patriots could simply stop the run and at the same time take away Manning's quick-read patterns and force him to go with the ball where he is least comfortable.
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| Stopping the run is key to the Patriots' success |
Manning gets the ball out of his hand to his quick-read faster than anyone in the National Football League, and the response that most teams have to his game is to throw nickle and dime defenses at him that are designed to protect against anything going over the top for a big play...
...but Manning isn't that guy any longer. The accuracy and velocity on his deep ball went bye-bye sometime in the last couple of years, so the Broncos have set up an offense for him that can run the football effectively enough that the play action freezes the slot corner and linebackers just long enough for them to gain instant separation.
Eighty percent of Manning's passes travel less than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, but his receivers gain such separation and Manning gets the ball out so quickly that the yards after the catch make up much of the yardage total, and former Patriot Wes Welker is an integral part of that along with speedy wideout Demaryius Thomas - and Eric Decker. And former basketball player-turned tight end Julius Thomas...
...but the Patriots can't just throw a dime defense at them and dare them to run the ball - as some have suggested - because the Broncos can play it that way, too.
Knowshon Moreno has become a dual threat in the Manning-led offense, running mostly right up the gut for four yards per carry but also curling out into the pattern to the tune of 37 catches for nine yards per reception - which means that at any given time, Manning can split three wide with an excellent pass catching tight end covering the weak side and an accomplished receiving running back curling out of the backfield - all capable of moving the sticks.
Which is why many teams come at the Broncos' offense with a dime package, and we may see some of that against Denver from the Patriots on Sunday night, but Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia would be prudent to play basic, fundamental football - stop the run, limit the yards after the catch on the underneath stuff and force Manning into third and long situations which will force him to the intermediate routes - and do it with a nickle base.
In other words, the Patriots are going to have to play physical, smashmouth defense at the first point of contact - or an old-school mugging, as it were.
Because if Manning's short game is limited and his running game rendered ineffective, he will be forced to try and go over the top on 3rd and long, a scenario that actually favors the Patriots, even with a banged up secondary - and even with Demaryius Thomas and his 4.38 speed in the pattern.
The common perception that many in the media have built for the Broncos is that they are an unstoppable juggernaut, a relentless scoring machine - and while they do lead the league in points per game, there is another reason why they can score so many points.
Because their passing game is predicated on yards after the catch, and also because Manning is so good at putting his receivers in excellent position to gain maximum post-catch yardage, the Broncos can move up and down the field very quickly as evidenced by their ridiculous average time of possession of 2:18 per series, which is the lowest number by far in the NFL...
...and with their defense sporting nearly the same average in length of possession allowed, Denver is averaging 13 possessions a game, which means that they have scored on nearly half of their possessions this season - although this number is a bit deceiving.
The Broncos came out of the gate in the 2013 season on fire, averaging 46 points per game, mostly against the abysmal NFC East opponents, also beating up on the Ravens and Raiders in the first five games of the season - scoring on 56% of their possessions...
...but in the past five games, they are averaging two touchdowns less per game and scoring on "just" 37% of their possessions while beating the likes of Jacksonville, Washington and San Diego and Kansas City, but losing to Indianapolis.
What all of this means is that the Broncos' offense has come back to earth a bit as teams have figured out ways to make them an all or nothing entity, meaning that either they score quickly or they give the ball back quickly - they do not feature long, clock-killing drives - but that is exactly what New England needs them to do.
But forcing this kind of scenario requires some creativity on the part of the New England coaching staff.
In employing a nickle defense instead of an all-out dime, the Patriots can feature a variation of a Cover-2, wherein the corners play up on the line and engage the receivers to try and disrupt the timing of their routes while two linebackers patrol the middle of the field and fill quickly both in run support and as a physical presence on crossing routes...
...and the safeties split the field and support on the deep zones. The safeties are key in this scenario, particularly if Aqib Talib is able to play and is anything near 100%, because as a big corner with good speed, Talib can handle Thomas on the outside and that would free up free safety - and former cornerback - Devin McCourty to align himself in coverage opposite Talib while Steve Gregory and rookie Duron Harmon handle the back end.
If Kyle Arrington is able to go with his groin issue resolved, he would get Welker underneath with linebacker support and, if not, Rookie Logan Ryan could compete as well - and we could even see a defensive end drop back into coverage and try to limit the tight end play.
Whichever way Belichick decides to attack this offense, the idea is to get full value out of the five-yard buffer wherein a defender is allowed contact with a receiver and slow down his release, taking away the timing of Manning's quick read routes and giving the Patriots' defensive line that extra second to try and get to Manning...
...which has been pretty tough for any teams' pass rush to do, as Manning has been sacked just 13 times on the season. Much of that has to do with the quick-read throws, but his offensive line has been excellent as well - so the goal for Chandler Jones, Chris Jones and Rob Ninkovich could be gap responsibility and penetration, chipping receivers coming off the line and sustaining gaps for rouge blitzing linebackers and corners.
But, of course, if they can somehow get to Manning themselves, that could completely change the entire philosophy.
Regardless, with an offense as proficient as the Broncos are bringing to Foxborough, and with as banged up as the secondary is, the Patriots can't afford to set back in a three-deep zone and allow the Broncos to move up and down the field quickly - they must force the issue, make Denver sustain long, time-consuming drives to get their points which in turn will limit the number of times they get the ball.
Even if New England is able to eliminate only three possessions from the Broncos' average of 13 per game - and given that the Patriots are right around the league average in scoring possessions allowed - they could conceivably hold the Broncos to four scores on the day...
...and with the Patriots' red zone defense being one of the best in the NFL - and their offense being not too shabby themselves - this scenario could lead to a resounding victory.
