Cause for Concern: Patriots Weaknesses Entering Training Camp
With training camp starting tomorrow, Patriots fans can finally move on from a tumultuous offseason and begin focusing on actual, on-the-field football issues. Here's a look at the team's biggest concerns heading into training camp.
Receivers/Tight Ends
This group will be fine if Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski can stay on the field. Unfortunately, that is a sentence that should scare the bejeezus out of Pats fans. Amendola's injury history is well documented; the diminutive receiver has missed 20 games over the past two seasons. Gronk, of course, is on the PUP list, recovering from his fifth surgery since November. It is unclear if Gronk will be removed from the PUP list in time for the season opener; if not he will be ineligible to return for the seasons first six games. Health is also a major concern for Julian Edelman, who finds himself on the PUP list at the start of camp.
There is a steep drop-off behind this talented but injury-prone duo. Wes Welker is in Denver, catching passes from Peyton Manning. Danny Woodhead is in San Diego. Aaron Hernandez is in a Bristol County prison. Brandon Lloyd is off somewhere in the abyss, doing Brandon Lloyd things. In their place is a pu-pu platter of uninspiring veterans and unproven rookies. Possession receiver Micheal Jenkins appears to be the early favorite for a starting job opposite Amendola, but he could get pushed for playing time if one of team's more explosive rookies earns Tom Brady's trust. Rookies Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce both have plenty of talent and undrafted free agent Kenbrell Thompkins opened some eyes during minicamps, but you have to go all the way back to 2002 and Deion Branch to find a rookie receiver who made an immediate impact on offense for the Pats.
At Tight End, the team has solid depth but little explosiveness behind Gronkowski. Former Giant Jake Ballard is a solid blocker with excellent hands, but he wasn't a burner even before tearing his ACL in Super Bowl XLVI. Michael Hoomanawanui earned the coaching staff's trust with a solid season in 2012, but he also lacks explosiveness in the passing game. Daniel Fells has a little more athleticism in the passing game but he seemed to fall out of favor with the coaching staff in 2012. Undrafted rookie Zach Sudfeld is a player to watch in training camp; at 6'7" and 255 pounds he has the size to be a good red zone target. Tight End shouldn't be a weakness in 2012, but certainly won't come close to being the weapon it has been in past seasons unless Gronkowski is at full strength.
Cornerback Depth
Once again, the Patriots are going into training camp looking a bit thin at cornerback. On paper, Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard look like a solid starting duo, but there is a lot of uncertainty behind them. It should scare Pats fans that the team is one pulled hammy or court ruling away from starting Kyle Arrington, who has, to put it gently, been in over-his-head when covering on the outside the past two years. This team really could use another player to step up and prove to be a viable option in case of injury. Ras-I Dowling staying healthy for more than a month would help, as would rookie Logan Ryan stepping up. Devin McCourty is always an option, but one that should be only used in emergencies; his presence at safety (where he served as the "quarterback" of the secondary) really solidifies the team's pass defense. Still, Aqib Talib's injury in last year's AFC Championship Game showed how quickly things can fall apart without secondary depth. The team's failure to bring in any reinforcements (other than drafting Ryan in the third round) could really come back to bite them if their depth is challenged.
Third Down Defense
There's no way around it: in order for this defense to improve, they have to get off the field on third down. The Pats allowed opponents to convert 40% of their third downs last year, a number which ranked amongst the bottom third of the league. There are a number of factors that could help the team lower that number this year. A big sophomore year leap for the reportedly bulked up Chandler Jones would greatly help the pass rush, giving opposing quarterback's less time to pick apart the team's defense. Improvement from the aforementioned cornerbacks will surely help, as well as the consistency of having Talib at corner and McCourty at safety for a full season.
Another factor that will help is improved coverage from the team's linebackers. The Patriots have traditionally employed bigger linebackers who are more adept at taking on blockers in the run game than dropping back into coverage (Hello, Brandon Spikes!). Second round rookie Jamie Collins provides an infusion of speed to the team's linebacking corps and could be a valuable contributor on third down both as a pass rusher and dropping into coverage. The return of versatile athlete Dane Fletcher could also help the team on this front; remember, he impressed as an unknown rookie in 2010 when pressed into action in a "spy" role against the Ravens' Ray Rice. The team could also use free agent safety Adrian Wilson as a linebacker in third down sub-packages. At 6'3" and 230 pounds, Wilson is strong enough to provide some thump against the run and still quick enough to cover running backs and tight ends.
Defensive Tackle
This is more of an "unknown" than a weakness. With Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick gone, only Vince Wilfork remains from last years DT rotation. They have been replaced by a few wild cards in veteran Tommy Kelly and CFL transfer Armond Armstead. Kelly is 32 and has been inconsistent in his career, but also has serious talent, particularly as an interior pass rusher. Armstead was a productive player at USC before an undisclosed injury led USC's medical staff to refuse to clear him to play in 2011. After going undrafted in 2012, Armstead went north to the CFL, where he was an All Star for the Grey Cup-winning Toronto Argonauts. While Armstead is an intriguing prospect, there's no telling how he'll fare facing NFL competition for the first time. There isn't much behind these three, barring a major jump from 2012 practice squad member Marcus Fortson. Jermaine Cunningham and Justin Francis both played tackle in subpackages at times, but both are natural defensive ends. If Kelly and Armstead play to potential, this wont be an issue. If they don't, the team could be looking for some help up front.
Receivers/Tight Ends
This group will be fine if Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski can stay on the field. Unfortunately, that is a sentence that should scare the bejeezus out of Pats fans. Amendola's injury history is well documented; the diminutive receiver has missed 20 games over the past two seasons. Gronk, of course, is on the PUP list, recovering from his fifth surgery since November. It is unclear if Gronk will be removed from the PUP list in time for the season opener; if not he will be ineligible to return for the seasons first six games. Health is also a major concern for Julian Edelman, who finds himself on the PUP list at the start of camp.
There is a steep drop-off behind this talented but injury-prone duo. Wes Welker is in Denver, catching passes from Peyton Manning. Danny Woodhead is in San Diego. Aaron Hernandez is in a Bristol County prison. Brandon Lloyd is off somewhere in the abyss, doing Brandon Lloyd things. In their place is a pu-pu platter of uninspiring veterans and unproven rookies. Possession receiver Micheal Jenkins appears to be the early favorite for a starting job opposite Amendola, but he could get pushed for playing time if one of team's more explosive rookies earns Tom Brady's trust. Rookies Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce both have plenty of talent and undrafted free agent Kenbrell Thompkins opened some eyes during minicamps, but you have to go all the way back to 2002 and Deion Branch to find a rookie receiver who made an immediate impact on offense for the Pats.
At Tight End, the team has solid depth but little explosiveness behind Gronkowski. Former Giant Jake Ballard is a solid blocker with excellent hands, but he wasn't a burner even before tearing his ACL in Super Bowl XLVI. Michael Hoomanawanui earned the coaching staff's trust with a solid season in 2012, but he also lacks explosiveness in the passing game. Daniel Fells has a little more athleticism in the passing game but he seemed to fall out of favor with the coaching staff in 2012. Undrafted rookie Zach Sudfeld is a player to watch in training camp; at 6'7" and 255 pounds he has the size to be a good red zone target. Tight End shouldn't be a weakness in 2012, but certainly won't come close to being the weapon it has been in past seasons unless Gronkowski is at full strength.
Cornerback Depth
Once again, the Patriots are going into training camp looking a bit thin at cornerback. On paper, Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard look like a solid starting duo, but there is a lot of uncertainty behind them. It should scare Pats fans that the team is one pulled hammy or court ruling away from starting Kyle Arrington, who has, to put it gently, been in over-his-head when covering on the outside the past two years. This team really could use another player to step up and prove to be a viable option in case of injury. Ras-I Dowling staying healthy for more than a month would help, as would rookie Logan Ryan stepping up. Devin McCourty is always an option, but one that should be only used in emergencies; his presence at safety (where he served as the "quarterback" of the secondary) really solidifies the team's pass defense. Still, Aqib Talib's injury in last year's AFC Championship Game showed how quickly things can fall apart without secondary depth. The team's failure to bring in any reinforcements (other than drafting Ryan in the third round) could really come back to bite them if their depth is challenged.
Third Down Defense
There's no way around it: in order for this defense to improve, they have to get off the field on third down. The Pats allowed opponents to convert 40% of their third downs last year, a number which ranked amongst the bottom third of the league. There are a number of factors that could help the team lower that number this year. A big sophomore year leap for the reportedly bulked up Chandler Jones would greatly help the pass rush, giving opposing quarterback's less time to pick apart the team's defense. Improvement from the aforementioned cornerbacks will surely help, as well as the consistency of having Talib at corner and McCourty at safety for a full season.
Another factor that will help is improved coverage from the team's linebackers. The Patriots have traditionally employed bigger linebackers who are more adept at taking on blockers in the run game than dropping back into coverage (Hello, Brandon Spikes!). Second round rookie Jamie Collins provides an infusion of speed to the team's linebacking corps and could be a valuable contributor on third down both as a pass rusher and dropping into coverage. The return of versatile athlete Dane Fletcher could also help the team on this front; remember, he impressed as an unknown rookie in 2010 when pressed into action in a "spy" role against the Ravens' Ray Rice. The team could also use free agent safety Adrian Wilson as a linebacker in third down sub-packages. At 6'3" and 230 pounds, Wilson is strong enough to provide some thump against the run and still quick enough to cover running backs and tight ends.
Defensive Tackle
This is more of an "unknown" than a weakness. With Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick gone, only Vince Wilfork remains from last years DT rotation. They have been replaced by a few wild cards in veteran Tommy Kelly and CFL transfer Armond Armstead. Kelly is 32 and has been inconsistent in his career, but also has serious talent, particularly as an interior pass rusher. Armstead was a productive player at USC before an undisclosed injury led USC's medical staff to refuse to clear him to play in 2011. After going undrafted in 2012, Armstead went north to the CFL, where he was an All Star for the Grey Cup-winning Toronto Argonauts. While Armstead is an intriguing prospect, there's no telling how he'll fare facing NFL competition for the first time. There isn't much behind these three, barring a major jump from 2012 practice squad member Marcus Fortson. Jermaine Cunningham and Justin Francis both played tackle in subpackages at times, but both are natural defensive ends. If Kelly and Armstead play to potential, this wont be an issue. If they don't, the team could be looking for some help up front.
