Win streaks: Why it's a good thing the Patriots lost to the 49ers
Call me insane but I think it's a good thing the Patriots had a loss in December. I'm a big believer in odds and the inevitable truth that the more games you win in a row, the higher chance you have of losing.
In order to win the Super bowl you need to, at the very least, win 3-4 games in a row. Those 3-4 obviously being all of the playoff games.
Had the Patriots beaten San Francisco and won out the final two games as expected, that would mean the Pats would have had to extend their winning streak to 14 in a row in order to win the Super Bowl.
Winning the big game on such an extremely long win streak is a daunting task that the 2011 and 2007 Patriots couldn't accomplish. More so than that, it's a task that in fact very few have ever accomplished.
As things stand now, a Super Bowl winning Patriots team would have to win the Super Bowl as their sixth win in a row (at the very most).
This is a much more common feat. Certainly it's more in line with the lower winning streaks that the last eight Super Bowl winners (and last nine of 10) have won on.
Here is the winning streaks of the Super Bowl winners of the last 10 years.
2011- Giants (6)
2010- Packers (6)
2009- Saints (3)
2008- Steelers (4)
2007- Giants (4)
2006- Colts (5)
2005- Steelers (8)
2004- Patriots (4)
2003- Patriots (15)
2002- Buccaneers (4)
The last team to win the Super Bowl on nearly as long of a winning streak as the Patriots would have needed this year was the 2003 Patriots, who won the Super Bowl as their 15th straight game.
Here is the list of runner ups for the Super Bowl and the win streaks that they were on before losing in the championship game.
2011- Patriots (10)
2010- Steelers (4)
2009- Colts (16)*
2008- Cardinals (4)
2007- Patriots (18)
2006- Bears (6)*
2005- Seahawks (13)*
2004- Eagles (8)*
2003- Panthers (6)
2002- Raiders (4)
*meaningless end of regular season games where starters rested were discounted
As you can see, it's not incredibly often that teams with extremely long winning streaks end up getting to the Super bowl. Part of that has to do with the fact that it's not often teams go on 10+ game winning streaks, of course. However, on top of all that, it's not often that these teams end up winning, which I believe runs contrary to popular belief. Or at least what most would expect.
Just looking at the last 10 years, teams on 10+ game winning streaks have gotten to the Super Bowl just five times. That's five teams out of 20, or 25% of the teams that have made a Super Bowl appearance. Only once in the last 10 years has one of those teams won the Super Bowl.
So while it's incredibly easy to think that the team that has won the most games in a row is the most dangerous, it's been proven time and time again that this isn't the case.
Obviously, going into the Super Bowl with a low winning streak is no guarantee of a win. Most of the time your opponent will also have a low winning streak as well, as the numbers show. This isn't about a secret formula to winning or anything, however, the lower your win streak is, the more the odds are on your side.
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| In the last 10 years, this is the only team that won the Super Bowl on a 10+ game winning streak |
Had the Patriots beaten San Francisco and won out the final two games as expected, that would mean the Pats would have had to extend their winning streak to 14 in a row in order to win the Super Bowl.
Winning the big game on such an extremely long win streak is a daunting task that the 2011 and 2007 Patriots couldn't accomplish. More so than that, it's a task that in fact very few have ever accomplished.
As things stand now, a Super Bowl winning Patriots team would have to win the Super Bowl as their sixth win in a row (at the very most).
This is a much more common feat. Certainly it's more in line with the lower winning streaks that the last eight Super Bowl winners (and last nine of 10) have won on.
Here is the winning streaks of the Super Bowl winners of the last 10 years.
2011- Giants (6)
2010- Packers (6)
2009- Saints (3)
2008- Steelers (4)
2007- Giants (4)
2006- Colts (5)
2005- Steelers (8)
2004- Patriots (4)
2003- Patriots (15)
2002- Buccaneers (4)
The last team to win the Super Bowl on nearly as long of a winning streak as the Patriots would have needed this year was the 2003 Patriots, who won the Super Bowl as their 15th straight game.
Here is the list of runner ups for the Super Bowl and the win streaks that they were on before losing in the championship game.
2011- Patriots (10)
2010- Steelers (4)
2009- Colts (16)*
2008- Cardinals (4)
2007- Patriots (18)
2006- Bears (6)*
2005- Seahawks (13)*
2004- Eagles (8)*
2003- Panthers (6)
2002- Raiders (4)
*meaningless end of regular season games where starters rested were discounted
As you can see, it's not incredibly often that teams with extremely long winning streaks end up getting to the Super bowl. Part of that has to do with the fact that it's not often teams go on 10+ game winning streaks, of course. However, on top of all that, it's not often that these teams end up winning, which I believe runs contrary to popular belief. Or at least what most would expect.
Just looking at the last 10 years, teams on 10+ game winning streaks have gotten to the Super Bowl just five times. That's five teams out of 20, or 25% of the teams that have made a Super Bowl appearance. Only once in the last 10 years has one of those teams won the Super Bowl.
So while it's incredibly easy to think that the team that has won the most games in a row is the most dangerous, it's been proven time and time again that this isn't the case.
Obviously, going into the Super Bowl with a low winning streak is no guarantee of a win. Most of the time your opponent will also have a low winning streak as well, as the numbers show. This isn't about a secret formula to winning or anything, however, the lower your win streak is, the more the odds are on your side.
