Would You Trade Welker?
So, there have been multiple media members, most notably Mike Freeman of CBS Sports have said that the whole Welker situation is the Patriots getting ready to trade him. I think these people are incredibly dumb, and don't agree. But, the question is, would you trade Welker? Lets dive in here, as always, follow me @CultOfBelichick
So. Let's just say that the Pats are really doing all this to trade Welker.
1. Who the fuck would want him? I like Welker as a player, but as a 31 year old, $9.5 million salary slot WR who you would have to either franchise at $11.5 million or sign to a long term deal? Doesn't seem very desirable. There is no guarantee he is going to sign a long term deal with the team that acquires him, and even if he does, is there any way you can come to terms with him? If you submit to his wish and do a 3 year deal worth around $8-10 mil per, is this going to hamstring your cap in the future? When he is ending the deal at 35ish? Inside slot guys do not make it to 35. Hell, T.O. is a top 5-10 WR of all time, and he can't even get a job at 35 (well he got ONE with the Bengals, but they are well, the Bengals). On top of all this, you are going to have to give up a draft pick, at LEAST a second rounder. So, draft pick, plus $9.5 million, plus risk of not signing him to extension and losing him or having to overpay, all for an inside slot WR on the wrong side of 30? Doesn't seem to me that teams are going to be lining up for that.
2. Why would the Pats trade him? The Pats are under the cap by a lot, and have most all of their core guys locked up on cheap team friendly deals for the next few years. They do not have any cap worries at all. So, they can eat that $9.5 overpay to keep him on a one year deal. He is most valuable in their system, and is a hard working guy, and Brady loves him. Yeah, he may not have a huge role in their offense (when everyone is healthy), but you know that when it comes down to the 2-minute drill he will be in there making big catches for your team. They still have leverage over him with the franchise mark next year (which there is no way in hell they will do, but still) and he is still a solid player especially when they have to switch to this 3WR offense with Hernandez out.
3. Would I trade Welker? Yes. Well, I would have said yes prior to the Hernandez injury. I do not think the Patriots need more inside guys. With Hernandez and Gronkowski clogging the middle for the rest of the decade, you want to pay big bucks for guys that can control the outside, and take some heat off of the TEs. If you can get a late 1st or early 2nd rounder for him at this stage of his career, I'd say you do it. Again, the Hernandez injury clouds things, but if he can get back and healthy and quick, I wouldn't be opposed to dealing Welker, for the right package.
So. Let's just say that the Pats are really doing all this to trade Welker.
1. Who the fuck would want him? I like Welker as a player, but as a 31 year old, $9.5 million salary slot WR who you would have to either franchise at $11.5 million or sign to a long term deal? Doesn't seem very desirable. There is no guarantee he is going to sign a long term deal with the team that acquires him, and even if he does, is there any way you can come to terms with him? If you submit to his wish and do a 3 year deal worth around $8-10 mil per, is this going to hamstring your cap in the future? When he is ending the deal at 35ish? Inside slot guys do not make it to 35. Hell, T.O. is a top 5-10 WR of all time, and he can't even get a job at 35 (well he got ONE with the Bengals, but they are well, the Bengals). On top of all this, you are going to have to give up a draft pick, at LEAST a second rounder. So, draft pick, plus $9.5 million, plus risk of not signing him to extension and losing him or having to overpay, all for an inside slot WR on the wrong side of 30? Doesn't seem to me that teams are going to be lining up for that.
2. Why would the Pats trade him? The Pats are under the cap by a lot, and have most all of their core guys locked up on cheap team friendly deals for the next few years. They do not have any cap worries at all. So, they can eat that $9.5 overpay to keep him on a one year deal. He is most valuable in their system, and is a hard working guy, and Brady loves him. Yeah, he may not have a huge role in their offense (when everyone is healthy), but you know that when it comes down to the 2-minute drill he will be in there making big catches for your team. They still have leverage over him with the franchise mark next year (which there is no way in hell they will do, but still) and he is still a solid player especially when they have to switch to this 3WR offense with Hernandez out.3. Would I trade Welker? Yes. Well, I would have said yes prior to the Hernandez injury. I do not think the Patriots need more inside guys. With Hernandez and Gronkowski clogging the middle for the rest of the decade, you want to pay big bucks for guys that can control the outside, and take some heat off of the TEs. If you can get a late 1st or early 2nd rounder for him at this stage of his career, I'd say you do it. Again, the Hernandez injury clouds things, but if he can get back and healthy and quick, I wouldn't be opposed to dealing Welker, for the right package.
