Brandon Lloyd: Overrated?

The Football Outsiders have determined their most over and under rated players for the upcoming season. While Tavaris Jackson was a surprise as an underrated entry, Brandon Lloyd was equally surprising to see on the over rated side.

Based on several metrics including the Defense Adjusted Value over Average (DVOA) which weighs productivity against the defense being faced. Lloyd comes out as a middle of the road producer, even though he was rated as the 14th best receiver in the Big Book of Scouting.

An interesting point is made about how Lloyd has been released by five teams in the past seven seasons. Also, he has only achieved 1,000 receiving yards once in his career. However, that one time was in Josh McDaniels' offense in Denver. Then you must factor in that Lloyd has played with sub par quarterbacks almost exclusively in his career. Obviously that can hurt any receiver's production. It goes without saying that the QB wont be the issue this year, so what should we expect?

He is 31 not 25, but I am honestly expecting Lloyd's best season of his entire career. I do not think he is going to break any records, or make anybody say "Holy shit! Brandon Lloyd is amazing!" But I do think he is going to be able to produce in the neighborhood of 80 catches 1200 yards 8 TD's. Those are awesome numbers in my opinion.

What say you Pats Fans?